Predicting BYU's Ranking in the First College Football Playoff Rankings

Casey Lundquist | Nov 5, 2024

Oct 26, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Brigham Young Cougars wide receiver Keelan Marion (17) prepares to return a kick against the Central Florida Knights at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Russell Lansford-Imagn Images / Russell Lansford-Imagn Images

Through eight games, BYU is 8-0 and 5-0 in Big 12 play. The Cougars have everything to play for as the calendar turns to November. Tuesday is an important day for BYU - the College Football Playoff committee will unveil the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season. When the rankings are released, BYU will be ranked in the CFP rankings for the first time since 2021. Today, we're predicting BYU's ranking in the first CFP rankings of the 2024 season.

Earlier this week, we looked at the best-case scenario and the worst-case scenario for BYU. You can read that article for the explanations of BYU's floor and BYU's ceiling, but here's our range for BYU:

Best-Case Scenario: No. 6
Worst-Case Scenario: No. 11

Over the last three years, the committee has valued power conference teams that are undefeated. Every undefeated P5/P4 team was ranked inside the top nine at worst and most were ranked in the top seven. The lowest-ranked undefeated P5 team was Wake Forest in 2021. That year, the Demon Deacons did not have a win over a ranked team when the CFP rankings were released.

BYU has wins over two teams that will likely be ranked on Tuesday: SMU and Kansas State. The win over SMU continues to get better and better after the Mustangs dominated previously undefeated Pitt on Saturday.

It's unclear how much benefit of the doubt this year's committee is going to give the Big Ten and the SEC. It's safe to expect that the teams from those conferences will be given as much benefit of the doubt as possible, while teams from the ACC and Big 12 won't be given as much grace.

We think BYU's resume is good enough to warrant leapfrogging at least one team that ranks ahead of them in the AP poll. Whether it's Indiana, Tennessee, or even Miami. That would put BYU at no. 8 in the CFP rankings. Here's our prediction for the top 25:

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Texas
5. Miami
6. Tennessee
7. Penn State
8. BYU
9. Indiana
10. Notre Dame
11. SMU
12. Alabama
13. Texas A&M
14. Iowa State
15. LSU
16. Boise State
17. Ole Miss
18. Boise State
19. Pitt
20. Clemson
21. Kansas State
22. Colorado
23. Washington State
24. Vanderbilt
25. South Carolina