Predicting BYU's Ranking in the New AP Poll After Multiple Top-25 Upsets

Casey Lundquist | Oct 6, 2024

Sep 21, 2024; Provo, Utah, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson (2) is pursued by Brigham Young Cougars defensive end Logan Lutui (59) during the third quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

What a wild day it was in college football. 5 out of the top 11 AP Top-25 teams lost on Saturday, including 4 upset losses against unranked teams.

1. #1 Alabama lost to unranked Vanderbilt
2. #4 Tennessee lost to unranked Arkansas
3. #9 Missouri was blown out by #25 Texas A&M
4. #10 Michigan lost to unranked Washington
5. #11 USC lost to unranked Minnesota

With all the upsets in the top 12, there's an opening for BYU to move up a couple spots in the AP poll. Today, we're predicting BYU's ranking in the AP Top 25.

The Best-Case Scenario

If AP voters take a look at BYU's resume, it stacks up really well compared to the teams ranked ahead of them. BYU has two wins over otherwise unbeaten teams. Kansas State is 4-1 and its only loss came against BYU. SMU is 5-1 and its only loss came against BYU. SMU took down #22 Louisville on the road on Saturday. The Mustangs have a chance to crack the top-25 this week. Maybe another look at BYU's resume is worth a spot or two in the rankings.

In the best-case scenario for BYU, the voters would rank the Cougars ahead of three teams that lost on Saturday: #9 Missouri, #10 Michigan, and #11 USC.

When no. 10 Utah lost to Arizona last weekend, the Utes fell eight spots to no. 18. If the voters punish Miami and Missouri to the same degree, BYU will slide in front of Missouri, Michigan, and USC.

In the best-case scenario, BYU would also avoid a potential leapfrog of #25 Texas A&M who dominated Missouri on Saturday.

Best-Case Ranking: #13 in the AP Poll

The Worst-Case Scenario

In the worst-case scenario, BYU leapfrogs a team that lost ahead of them (most likely USC) while being leapfrogged by a team like Texas A&M. That would keep BYU at no. 17 in the AP Poll.

Worst-Case Scenario Ranking: #17 in the AP Poll

Our Prediction

USC is now 3-2 with losses to Michigan (3-2) and Minnesota (3-3). With two losses, I expect the Trojans to fall below undefeated BYU in the rankings.

Same story for Michigan. I expect the defending champs to fall below BYU after losing their second game of the 2024 season.

I think Texas A&M is a legitimate threat to leapfrog BYU. Whether they leapfrog BYU or not, one thing is guaranteed: they will be ranked ahead of Missouri. So if Texas A&M doesn't leapfrog BYU, it means that Missouri will fall below BYU in the rankings as well.

Prediction: #15 in the AP Poll