Predicting BYU's Ranking in the AP Poll
Coming into the 2022 season, BYU ranked no. 25 in the preseason AP poll. The Cougars proved worthy of their preseason ranking in the opener, jumping out to a 38-0 lead in the first 28 minutes against USF and holding on to a 50-21 victory. The second AP poll of the season will be released on Tuesday. Today, we predict BYU's AP ranking in week two.
Opportunities to move up
Only four ranked teams lost last weekend:
- Notre Dame (5)
- Utah (7)
- Oregon (11)
- Cincinnati (23)
This leaves few opportunities to easily rise in the rankings. Notre Dame will likely stay in the top 10 after a very respectable showing against #2 Ohio State. No. 7 Utah lost to unranked Florida, although the Utes will likely remain in the top 20 and the Gators will jump into the top 15.
Oregon is at risk of falling completely out of the rankings. The Ducks got absolutely embarrassed in a 49-3 loss to no. 3 Georgia. Last year, North Carolina was ranked no. 10 in the preseason AP poll before losing to Virginia Tech in week one. After that loss, the Tar Heels slid all the way to 24.
No. 23 Cincinnati will drop out of the rankings following its loss to Arkansas.
Risk of being leapfrogged
There are also teams that are a threat to leapfrog BYU this week:
Florida, Tennessee, Texas, Penn State, and Florida State. Whenever big brands win games early, they start racking up AP votes in a hurry.
Best-case scenario
In the best-case scenario, BYU would surpass no. 23 Cincinnati and no. 11 Oregon who lost last weekend. BYU would also surpass no. 23 Houston who needed triple overtime to take down the Roadrunners of UTSA.
Additionally, BYU's dominant performance against USF would have been enough to be included in more ballots.
Best-case scenario ranking: 18
Worst-case scenario
There were probably few national voters that tuned into ESPNU after a two-hour delay to watch BYU beat USF. Therefore, few were able to witness the domination that was reminiscent of BYU in 2020, and they will use the box score to case their votes.
In the worst-case scenario, BYU would be leapfrogged by big brands that won big games on prime-time television. Think Florida, Florida State, and Penn State.
Then big brands like Texas and Tennessee, who were just behind BYU in the preseason poll, would leapfrog the Cougars after dominant performances in week one.
Could BYU drop out of the rankings after a dominant performance in week one? It's not likely, but it's also not impossible. AP rankings, especially during the first few weeks of the season, are chalked full of flaws.
Worst-case scenario ranking: unranked
Most likely scenario
I think BYU will see little movement in this week's AP poll, 23-25 being the most likely range. BYU's win was enough to maintain the confidence of the voters, but a win over USF isn't enough to justify a 5-7 spot jump in the rankings.
Most likely ranking: 24
