Predicting No. 22 BYU Football at Baylor

Casey Lundquist | 3 Hours Ago

Sep 21, 2024; Provo, Utah, USA; Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) hands the ball off to running back Sione I Moa (30) during the second quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

On Saturday morning, BYU will look to win its first ever road game in Big 12 play. The Cougars, who went 0-5 in conference road games in 2023, head into this matchup against Baylor with a perfect 4-0 record. BYU is coming off a dominant 38-9 win over no. 13 Kansas State last week.

Baylor is coming off a devastating loss to Colorado. The Bears had a 99.3% chance to win in the fourth quarter according to ESPN analytics. Then, Baylor missed a field goal, allowed a game-tying Hail Mary on the last play of the game, and fumbled before the goal line in overtime to lose 38-31.

Baylor is in desperate need of a signature win - their head coach's job might depend on it. Baylor will be extremely motivated to come out and make a statement against BYU.

BYU is looking to make a statement of its own. Despite starting 4-0, beating Kansas State convincingly, and being nationally ranked, Baylor is favored in this game. Oddsmakers continue to doubt the Cougars even though they are 4-0 against the spread this season.

Baylor has found a spark on offense with quarterback Sawyer Robertson. Toledo transfer Dequann Finn won the starting job and was downright dreadful in a road loss at Utah earlier this year. Robertson was inserted into the starting lineup against Air Force and Colorado, and the Baylor offense has been more potent ever since.

Robertson isn't new to Baylor. He played in six games in 2023 after transferring from Mississippi State. Robertson struggled for Baylor in 2023. He threw for 864 yards, completing 56.4% of his passes. He threw 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He threw only one touchdown against FBS competition in five games. Robertson didn't do enough to win the starting job, so the Bears turned to the transfer portal to find a new quarterback.

Robertson has looked like a much improved quarterback under new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital. This year, he has thrown for 463 yards, completed 64% of his passes, thrown 3 touchdowns and no interceptions.

The BYU defense will be the best defense he has faced this season - they rank third nationally in pass efficiency defense. BYU will need to confuse Robertson and force him into a mistake or two.

On offense, BYU needs to find some consistent production from the rushing attack. Ever since LJ Martin suffered an injury against SMU, BYU's rushing attack has been inconsistent. BYU finally found some answers at running back when true freshman Sione Moa emerged against Kansas State. Moa, however, has been limited this week due to injury.

Baylor is a good, physical defense. They will challenge BYU's rushing attack.

BYU will need some consistency in the passing game from Jake Retzlaff. The Bears allowed some chunk-yardage through the air against Colorado last week. Retzlaff will need to hit on a few chunk plays in this game.

"Trap game" isn't the right way to describe this game. A scary game maybe? Baylor is good enough to beat BYU in Waco. Baylor is going to come out very motivated. BYU might need to weather an early strom in this one and avoid disastrous mistakes early in the game.

24 points feels like the magic number in this game. Whichever team gets to 24 points will probably win. Just like they have every week this season, I think BYU's defense will be up to the task this week. However, they will allow their first touchdown against Power Four foe. The BYU defense will force Robertson into a mistake or two and set up some short fields for the BYU offense. I expect BYU's offense to be able to piece two or three long scoring drives together and score just enough to escape Waco with a win.

Ultimately, it will be BYU's redzone defense that makes the difference in the game.

BYU 24 | Baylor 20