Preview and Prediction: Five Reasons No. 13 BYU Football will Beat Oklahoma State

Joe Wheat | Oct 18, 2024

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff against Arizona / BYU Photo

What a difference a year makes. Just 328 days ago, no. 20 Oklahoma State overcame an 18-point deficit against BYU that vaulted the Cowboys into the conference championship game and BYU into one of the bleakest offseasons in recent memory. Fast forward to Friday, and now BYU is the top 20 team hosting a reeling program trying to snap a losing streak. BYU has never beaten Oklahoma State in three tries, but here are five reason that streak ends tonight.  

1. BYU’s worst has been better than Oklahoma State's best on defense this season

The BYU offensive line against Arizona / BYU Photo

The Pokes defense gave up a season low 5.10 yards per play against Tulsa in week 3 this season while BYU’s defense allowed a season high 5.09 yards per play against Kansas State a week later. It’s been downhill for the Cowboy defense ever since. Oklahoma State have given up an 6.93 yards per play over their last 3 games and allowed 292.5 rushing yards per game against Power 4 opponents. Last week, we highlighted that Arizona was vulnerable against the run due to their 18% explosive rush rate allowed this season. Oklahoma State's explosive rush rate allowed is 21.2%.
In short, this will be the worst statistical defense BYU will have played this season.

On the flip side, BYU is coming off their best offensive performance of the season, particularly on the ground, where they averaged a season high 5.4 yards per carry. If BYU can build on that on Friday, BYU should be able to move the ball at will.

2. Jake Retzlaff has been nearly perfect at home this season

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff against Arizona / BYU Photo

Jake Retzlaff at Lavell Edwards Stadium is one of the best quarterbacks in college football. His 164.0 passer rating at home would rank 18th nationally if sustained over a full season. His flawless run of 7 touchdowns and 0 turnover-worthy plays has been a key reason BYU has enjoyed a 26.3 average margin of victory within the confines of their home field. There is a good chance that continues Friday. Oklahoma state ranks 88th nationally in both success rate and expected points added per drop back this season. If Retzlaff continues to do what he’s been doing under the lights of LES, BYU will simply not make enough mistakes for Oklahoma State to pull off a shocker.

3. BYU’s defense will make a bad day your worst

BYU defensive end Isaiah Bagnah pressures Noah Fifita / BYU Photo

BYU has held every offense they've played below their season average in yards per play. They have also held 3 of the 4 P4 offenses they've played to their lowest per-play output of the season. The Cougars have accomplished this by electing to simply suffocate opposing offenses in every way imaginable. BYU's P4 opponents are twice as likely to commit a turnover than score a touchdown this year, while more drives have resulted in a turnover or turnover on downs than in points. On average, opponents are only able to travel 35.4% of the yards available to them before their drive implodes. That is good for 11th in the nation and bad news for Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma state ranks 100th nationally in available yards gained, at just 40.8% and 129th in rush success rate despite having the defending Doak Walker Award winner in their backfield. BYU fans are very familiar with Ollie Gordon III, as he ran for 5 TDs on the Cougars in Stillwater last season. He has been a different player this season though, largely due to a subpar offensive line who is allowing less than one yard before contact this year. Outside of their game against Tulsa, their pass game hasn’t been much better. Oklahoma State benched 7th year senior Alan Bowman during the bye week and are turning over the reigns to sophomore Garret Rangel, who has thrown 87 career passes with a 7:6 TD to INT ratio against the nations #1 pass defense on the road. I like BYU’s chances in that match up.

4. Provo at night

Jake Retzlaff takes a snap in the third quarter against Southern Illinois / BYU Photo

Lavell Edwards Stadium has always been a special place, but this season has been supernatural. BYU has forced seven turnovers in their two Big 12 home games, six of which occurred in the shadow of the ABYSS (Amazing Brigham Young Student Section. Trying to make that nickname catch on). That havoc has led to BYU outscoring their opponents 45-0 off of turnovers at home this year. That is bad news for Oklahoma State who ranks 76th in turnover margin.

From one of my stats interns, @MattingleyTyler:

BYU opponents have had more drives end in a turnover than touchdown or field goal (18% TO; 14% TD, 14% FG).

Including turnovers on downs, BYU opponents turn the ball over on 35% of possessions--more than any other drive outcome,… pic.twitter.com/FR5ByoTV5o

— Greg Wrubell (@gregwrubell) October 17, 2024

5. BYU is the better football team right now

BYU takes the field against Arizona / BYU Photo

This feels weird to say, given the preseason expectations of both these teams, but BYU is the better football team today. BYU is 17th nationally in yards per play differential to OSU’s 102nd, 25th in net available yards gained to OSU’s 108th, and 20th in net points per drive to OSU’s 92nd. BYU is a complete football team and has earned the right to be 6-0, and if two football teams we have seen the last four weeks show up on Friday, BYU will be 7-0.

Prediction

This article has been critical of Oklahoma State, but the roster that appeared in Big 12 championship a season ago is largely the same roster coming to Provo this week. Ollie Gordon is in there somewhere and Mike Gundy is a hall of fame football coach fighting for his 19th-straight winning season. If the Pokes wake up off a bye and remember that they are, in fact, Oklahoma State, they can absolutely beat BYU at home. Unfortunately for them, I don’t think Friday will be that day.

These are two teams trending in completely opposite directions. Oklahoma State's offense virtually held open quarterback tryouts halfway through the season and their already porous defense will be without their two best players. Meanwhile, BYU is clicking in all three phases. Their one weakness, their run game, has improved every week and will now be matched up with a rush defense that can only be described as an army of turnstiles over the last three games. This is a “take care of business” kind of game for BYU. If the offense takes care of the football and the defense holds Ollie Gordon to his season averages, BYU wins by 2 scores.

BYU 34-17 OSU