Ranking BYU Football's Most Likely Win Totals According to ESPN FPI

Casey Lundquist | Aug 15, 2024

Oct 21, 2023; Provo, Utah, USA; Brigham Young Cougars wide receiver Keelan Marion (17) returns a kick against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first half at LaVell Edwards Stadium. / Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

The college football season is just a few weeks away. ESPN FPI cemented its preseason predictions for every game on the 2024 BYU football schedule. FPI's projected record for the Cougars is 4.8-7.2 in 2024, largely in line with the Vegas expectations for BYU. Using FPI predictions, we calculated the most likely win totals for BYU in 2024.

BYU's Most Likely Win Totals According to ESPN FPI

Using FPI win probabilities, five wins is the most likely outcome for BYU in 2024 (excluding potential bowl games and conference championship games):

• 5 wins - 24.8%
• 4 wins - 23.5%
• 6 wins - 17.8%
• 3 wins - 14.5%
• 7 wins - 8.9%
• 2 wins - 5.4%
• 8 wins - 3.1%
• 1 win - 1.0%
• 9 wins - 0.7%
• 10 wins - 0.1%
• 0 wins - 0.1%
• 11 wins - 0.0%
• 12 wins - 0.0%

FPI is not high on the 2024 BYU football team. In fact, FPI believes a disastrous season is more likely than a season where BYU overperforms (overperform meaning BYU gets to seven or more wins).

According to FPI, there is a 66% chance that BYU will finish the regular season with somewhere between 4-6 wins. Using those same numbers, it's more likely that BYU will finish with less than four wins than it is that BYU will finish with seven or more wins. FPI gives BYU a 13% chance to finish with seven or more wins and a 21% chance to finish with three or fewer wins.

It's important to know that these numbers are calculated using individual win probabilities for every game. Those win probabilities will change as the season progresses. It happens every year since prior year performance is not a great indication or future performance in college football. Since BYU was bad by nearly every efficiency metric last season, the models expect similar outputs from BYU in 2024. If BYU plays well in the first few games, for example, the forecasted win totals will go up in a hurry.