Ranking the Big 12 Expansion Candidates

The Big 12 is looking to add at least one more school for the 2024 season

Last week, the Big 12 conference sent shockwaves through the college football landscape when it poached Colorado from the Pac-12. With Colorado on board, the Big 12 hopes to add either one or three more schools for the 2024 season. Today, we'll rank the nine Big 12 expansion candidates that Brett McMurphy listed in his most recent report.

9. UNLV

If UNLV is invited, it means many preferred scenarios have fallen through for the Big 12. UNLV has never sustained success in any conference and, as a result, never truly captured the Las Vegas market. Las Vegas is becoming a market for professional sports, meaning UNLV is at risk of becoming more of an afterthought in the future.

8. Memphis

Back in 2021, the Big 12 had four chances to invite Memphis and instead went with BYU, UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati. In terms of Memphis' value, not much has changed between today and 2021. Brett Yormark has said multiple times that any additions to the conference would need to be additive. With the new media rights number set at $31.7M per school, it's hard to come up with a scenario where Memphis would be additive.

7. San Diego State

San Diego State would allow the Big 12 to be in all four time zones. The Aztecs have also sustained success in the two major revenue sports. However, their leadership has left a lot to be desired over the last few months with their handling of conference realignment. Director of Athletics JD Wicker famously made public comments in April that San Diego State would either be in the Big 12 or Pac-12 eventually:

SDSU AD JD Wicker to Seth Davis of The Athletic: “One or the other [B12, P12] is going to happen. We’re excited for the opportunity, and we’ve done a lot of work to prepare for that.”

— Dennis Dodd (@dennisdoddcbs) April 29, 2023

As the saying goes, loose lips sink ships. In the landscape of college athletics, public comments like that one are not kosher. 

San Diego State made more public blunders this Summer when it informed the Mountain West that it was leaving the conference. The only problem? The Aztecs had not received an invite to neither the Pac-12 nor the Big 12. San Diego State was stuck without a home, and was eventually forced to grovel back to the Mountain West.

San Diego State has the potential to be a valuable addition, but there are a few red flags that signal the potential for problems down the road.

6. UConn

It's no secret that Brett Yormark is bullish on UConn. Yormark wants a piece of the New York market, and UConn is a way to get his foot in the door. UConn's success in both men's and women's basketball is undeniable. Since the turn of the century, there isn't a pair of basketball programs in the country have been as dominant as UConn's men's and women's hoops.

For as good as UConn basketball has been, the football program has been one of the worst in the country since the collapse of the Big East. UConn essentially pulled the plug on football to focus on basketball when it left the AAC. The Huskies showed signs of life last year under new coach Jim Mora - but the de-prioritization of football makes UConn a risky bet in conference expansion. So risky, in fact, in might be better to stay at 13 teams than invite UConn for 2024.

5. Arizona State

Arizona State has been one of the Big 12's top targets over the last 12 months. According to a few reports, however, the Sun Devils have not reciprocated a lot of interest. That could certainly change with the departure of Colorado, but it's something to note when evaluating Arizona State.

The Big 12 is competing to be the third-best conference behind the Big Ten and the SEC. The Big 12 has a major advantage in terms of alignment with Brett Yormark and a clear vision for the future. If you're the Big 12, it's important to add schools that want to be with you, not just because it was the only option available. That statement is true for Arizona State, Utah, Oregon, and Washington.

Oregon, Washington, and Utah have had a lot of football success over the last decade. Arizona is consistently one of the best basketball programs out West. Arizona State ranks last on our list of Pac-12 targets since it hasn't had too much sustained success in either basketball or football.

4. Utah

First things first, there is a loud group of both BYU and Utah fans that do not want to share a conference again. It makes sense. Utah fans don't want to see BYU and Utah on a level playing field after enjoying a decade of being the only Power Five school in the state. BYU fans don't want to extend Utah a lifeline after being forced to watch Utah fans gloat from their Power Five tower.

However, adding Utah to the Big 12 (and most notably the BYU-Utah rivalry) would create value to the conference. The BYU-Utah rivalry would be one of the marquee Big 12 matchups every year. In an era where brands and matchups are valued by networks, the BYU-Utah rivalry would bring both.

For BYU fans, it's their time to enjoy their standing in the Big 12. Whether Utah joins the Big 12 or not, BYU fans are in a win-win situation. If Utah doesn't join, BYU would have an opportunity to a member of one of the best conferences in the country while Utah is mostly out of the picture. If Utah joins, BYU fans can enjoy the BYU-Utah rivalry in its natural habitat: a late November game with conference title implications. 

3. Washington

Washington has been eyeing the Big Ten since USC and UCLA announced their departure in 2022. With a new commissioner in place, it's no guarantee that an invite will ever come. If the Huskies are open to the Big 12, they would bring the fourth time zone and a rich history to the Big 12. Of the remaining Pac-12 schools, nobody has a more rich football history than Washington.

2. Oregon

Similar to Washington, Oregon is not guaranteed a future spot in the Big Ten. If the Big Ten expands, it might be East when the ACC schools become available. Oregon would have the highest recruiting ceiling of the new Big 12 and would add a passionate fanbase and brand recognition. If either Oregon or Washington leaves the Pac-12, it would officially mark the beginning of the end for the Pac-12.

1. Arizona

Arizona would fit the Big 12 culturally and geographically. The addition of Arizona would also further cement the Big 12 as the best basketball league in America. 

The Arizona football program is on the rise under Jedd Fisch after a few down years under Kevin Sumlin.

Adding Arizona could create a domino effect of more Pac-12 defections, giving the Big 12 leverage to be selective with its last two remaining spots.

Similar to other programs in the Big 12, the Wildcats have loyal fan support. Perhaps most importantly, Arizona has reciprocated the most interest among the remaining Pac-12 schools. From a BYU perspective, the addition of Arizona would give the Cougars another regional conference game. There are thousands of BYU fans in Arizona that would regularly attend BYU-Arizona games in Tucson. BYU and Arizona have some recent history to build on, playing six times since 2006.

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