Ranking the Games on BYU's 2022 Schedule by Difficulty

Earlier this week, ESPN updated its FPI predictions for the upcoming college football season. BYU, who returns more experience than any roster in the country,

Earlier this week, ESPN updated its FPI predictions for the upcoming college football season. BYU, who returns more experience than any roster in the country, is expected to go 7-5 according to FPI. We agreed with some of FPI's projections and disagreed with others. Today, we'll rank the most difficult games on BYU's schedule from our perspective. 

12. November 19th - vs Utah Tech Trailblazers

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 99.7%

Utah Tech, formerly known as Dixie State, travels to Provo in late November.

Ranking justification: BYU has never lost to an FCS opponent. Don't expect that to change this season when BYU hosts Utah Tech. Utah Tech, formerly Dixie State, recently moved up to the FCS ranks. BYU will likely be favored by 30+ points.

11. September 24th - vs Wyoming Cowboys

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 86.6%

BYU will host Wyoming in a battle of former conference foes. The Cowboys lost multiple contributors to the transfer portal over the offseason.

Ranking justification: BYU hasn't lost to Wyoming since 2003 and is riding an eight-game winning streak against the Cowboys. Wyoming lost too much talent to the transfer portal - BYU should be heavily favored in this game. 

10. October 28th - vs East Carolina Pirates

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 80.0%

This season, BYU will have the opportunity to avenge a 2017 loss at East Carolina. FPI lists BYU as a heavy favorite with an 80% chance to win.

Ranking justification: Traveling across the country to high altitude could spell trouble for East Carolina this season. The Cougars will likely be favored by multiple touchdowns.

9. October 22nd - @ Liberty Flames

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 58.1%

BYU will be playing its eighth game in eight weeks when it travels across the country to take on Liberty. FPI has BYU as only a slight favorite with a 58% chance to win.

Ranking justification: Traveling across the country will be a challenge, especially so late into the season. Liberty, however, has a lot of production to replace, most notably quarterback Malik Willis. I like BYU's chances in this game more than FPI - I would give the Cougars a 70% chance to win.

8. September 29th - vs Utah State Aggies

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 82.0%

BYU will host in-state rival Utah State on a Thursday night. The Aggies lose a lot of production from last year's team that won the Mountain West. 

Ranking justification: FPI thinks really likes BYU's chances to beat Utah State this season. The rivalry adds a layer of complexity to this game - winning rivalry games is never easy in college football. For that reason, this game was bumped up a few spot on my list.

7. September 3rd - @ USF Bulls

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 64.8%

BYU's opener against USF in September will be a battle of the two most experienced teams in the country. Last week, ESPN's Bill Connelly updated his annual returning production rankings - BYU and USF ranked first and second in the country, respectively.

Ranking justification: Traveling to Florida has always been a challenge for the BYU football program. Until BYU's bowl win over UCF in 2020, the Cougars had never won a game in the state of Florida. BYU is favored by multiple scores, and rightfully so, the Cougars handled the Bulls last season in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score. However, USF has added a few key additions from the transfer portal, most notably former Baylor quarterback Gary Bohanon. It wouldn't be surprising to see USF cover the spread in a BYU victory.

6. November 26th - @ Stanford Cardinal

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 52.9%

A regular season finale at Stanford will wrap up BYU's 2022 slate. Stanford was downright bad last season, but the Cardinal has the talent to rebound in 2022. FPI's way-too-early prediction for this game is a tossup with BYU having a 53% chance to win.

Ranking justification: Stanford has the talent on its roster to make this a tough game in November. Until the Cardinal show marked improvement on the field, however, I can't justify a higher ranking. Stanford was downright bad last season; they finished with a 3-9 record and their nine losses came by a combined 183 points. 

5. November 5th - @ Boise State Broncos

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 43.0%

BYU will travel to Boise to take on the Broncos in a game that could avenge last year's loss in Provo. That loss to Boise State arguably kept BYU out of a NY6 Bowl. This game could be the final chapter of a decade-long rivalry. Earlier this year, BYU cancelled its future games with the Broncos as it prepares to enter the Big 12 in 2023.

Ranking justification: Beating Boise State in Boise is always a challenge; BYU has defeated Boise State only once on their home turf (2020). The game will also be the Cougars' 10th game in 10 weeks. FPI thinks this game is a tossup and I tend to agree.

This could be a swing game on BYU's schedule, and they have the talent to win it. Last year, turnovers and costly penalties kept BYU out of the game. If those things are cleaned up, BYU can close out this chapter of the rivalry with a win.

4. September 17th - @ Oregon Ducks

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 25.9%

The Ducks will be replacing 2021 starting quarterback Anthony Brown this season. Former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix transferred to Oregon after last season and is a candidate to replace Brown. Nix is competing against Ty Thompson and Jay Butterfield for the starting job.

Ranking justification: According to FPI, this is the second most difficult game on BYU's schedule this season. I disagree, I think Baylor and Arkansas might be a less favorable matchup for BYU. The Ducks struggled late in the season last year and they still have a few question marks surrounding the quarterback spot. I don't think BYU should be favored in this game - the Cougars still need to prove that they can fix some defense problems in the run game. However, I'd give BYU better than a 25% chance to pull off the upset.

The Ducks boast one of the best offensive lines in college football. If BYU is going to pull off the upset, containing the Ducks' rushing attack will be imperative.

Oregon's defense had its own set of struggles last year - the Ducks were bullied by Utah in both the regular season and the PAC-12 championship game. If the Ducks' defensive struggles leak into this season, BYU could put up a lot of points.

3. October 15th - vs Arkansas Razorbacks

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 46.4%

BYU will face off against an SEC opponent in Lavell Edwards Stadium for the first time since Mississippi State in 2016. The Razorbacks have been on the rise as a program and they have SEC talent throughout the roster.

Ranking justification: BYU will host Arkansas one week after playing Notre Dame in Vegas. The Razorbacks will also be coming off a difficult stretch of their schedule; they take on Texas A&M, Alabama, and Mississippi State in the three weeks prior to traveling to Provo. FPI calls this game a tossup. In this writer's opinion, the outcome of this game could be determined by BYU's health and depth at this point in the season. If the Cougars are healthy, they have a chance to take down the Razorbacks at home. If their depth, especially on defense, is depleted by October like it was last season, competing against SEC talent could be too much to handle. If BYU's defense can keep Arkansas under 28 points, BYU has enough firepower to win.

2. September 10th - vs Baylor Bears

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 42.8%

Last year, BYU traveled to Waco and lost 38-24. The Bears pounded the ball on the ground, and the Cougars had no response defensively; Baylor ran for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns. Baylor would go on to win the Big 12 championship and the Sugar Bowl.

Ranking justification: Baylor was picked to be repeat champions of the Big 12 this season. The Bears simply dominated BYU in the trenches last October, and even though Baylor loses most of its production from last season, its offensive line returns multiple players that gave BYU's defense problems.

BYU's defensive line had been decimated by injuries by the time BYU played Baylor last season. In September, we'll learn if a healthier defensive line will be capable of stopping Baylor's rushing attack.

BYU was able to move the ball against Baylor last year, but failed to capitalize on a few scoring opportunities. If this game turns into a shootout, BYU won't be able to afford to squander scoring opportunities.

1. October 8th vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Las Vegas)

(Photo: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports)

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 18.4%

The most difficult game on BYU's schedule according to ESPN FPI. BYU will travel to Las Vegas to take on Notre Dame in Allegiant Stadium. This game is part of Notre Dame's annual Shamrock Series, so Notre Dame will be considered the home team.

Ranking justification: College football fans like to tease Notre Dame for its performance in the post-season. That is justified, but the Fighting Irish deserve credit for their dominance during the regular season. Notre Dame has gone 43-4 in the last four regular seasons.

Like Baylor and Oregon, Notre Dame features one of the best offensive line units in the country. BYU's defensive line and linebackers will be tested in this game.

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