Ranking the Most Likely Matchups in the Big 12 Conference Title Game

Casey Lundquist | 18 Hours Ago

BYU wide receiver Keelan Marion / BYU Photo

With one week to go in the regular season, nine Big 12 teams technically have a path to the Big 12 title game. In this article, we'll rank the most likely conference title matchups according to SP+. SP+ is a predictive algorithm created by Bill Connelly of ESPN. Using SP+ game probabilities, we calculated the most likely matchups in the the Big 12 title game, and each team's chances to be playing in Arlington.

After eight weeks of conference play, there is a four-team tie atop the Big 12 standings between BYU, Colorado, Arizona State, and Iowa State. AccordingThere is a 99.8% chance that the Big 12 championship game will feature at least one of the four teams that are currently at the top of the Big 12 standings. There is a 95.5% that the Big 12 title game will involve some combination of the top four teams in the standings. For the purposes of this article, we'll focus only on the scenarios that involve matchups between the top four teams. Again, there is a 95.5% chance that the championship game will feature some combination of the top four teams.

Most Likely Matchups

1. Iowa State vs Arizona State - 32.3%

The only teams that control their own destinies are Iowa State and Arizona State. SP+ says there is a 32.3% chance that both teams will win and face each other in the Big 12 title game.

2. BYU vs Arizona State - 31.6%

A BYU-Arizona State rematch is nearly the most likely outcome in the Big 12 title game. If BYU makes the Big 12 title game, this is the most likely matchup by a wide margin.

Iowa State would need to lose to Kansas State for this scenario to be possible. SP+ has Kansas State as a slight favorite in that game.

3. BYU vs Iowa State - 15.7%

The third most likely scenario also involves BYU. BYU and Iowa State didn't play each other in the regular season in 2024, but BYU would be looking for revenge after suffering a terrible home loss to the Cyclones in 2023.

This scenario would come to fruition in a world where both Iowa State and BYU win, but Arizona State loses to Arizona.

4. BYU vs Colorado - 13.4%

Of the four teams at the top of the Big 12 standings, Colorado's path to the Big 12 title game is the least probable. The Buffaloes need two of the other top three teams in the standings to lose for them to have a path to the Big 12 championship. The most likely matchup for Colorado is a showdown against BYU.

5. A Championship Game Involving ONLY ONE of BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, or Arizona State - 4.3%

For the teams not named BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, and Arizona State, they need three out of the four teams at the top of the standings to lose. If that happens, there are dozens of scenarios that could be possible. For the purposes of this article, we won't dive into those.

6. ASU vs Colorado - 1.7%

An ASU-Colorado championship game would require losses from both Iowa State and BYU. SP+ doesn't think this matchup is very likely.

7. Iowa State vs Colorado - 0.8%

Even less likely than ASU-Colorado is Iowa State-Colorado according to SP+.

8. A Championship Game Involving NONE of BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, or Arizona State - 0.2%

There is a Lloyd Christmas chance that the Big 12 title game could feature two three-loss teams.

Teams With the Best Odds to Make the Big 12 Title Game

Of the teams tied at the top of the Big 12 standings, BYU and Arizona State have the best odds to make the Big 12 title game.

1. Arizona State - 66.0%
2. BYU - 63.6%
3. Iowa State - 49.0%
4. Colorado - 15.8%