Score Prediction for No. 11 BYU Football at UCF

Casey Lundquist | Oct 26, 2024

Oct 18, 2024; Provo, Utah, USA; Brigham Young Cougars wide receiver Keelan Marion (17) runs for a touchdown against the Oklahoma State Cowboys during the third quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

On Saturday afternoon, Kalani Sitake and the no. 11 BYU football program take on the UCF Knights in Orlando. As of this writing, the Cougars are two-point underdogs against the Knights. Today, we're pulling out our crystal ball and predicting the outcome of BYU-UCF.

Historically speaking, playing in the state of Florida has never been easy for BYU. The first time BYU won in the Sunshine State was in 2020 against...UCF. The Cougars destroyed the Knights in the 2020 Boca Raton Bowl.

The travel combined with UCF's vaunted rushing attack will make this a major challenge for BYU. On paper, this looks like BYU's most difficult game remaining on the schedule. That's why Vegas favors UCF in this game. Despite the records and BYU's national ranking, oddsmakers believe UCF is a bad matchup for BYU's defense.

You can almost guarantee that BYU's coaching staff will use the betting line as motivation for their players. Because they have all season long. Despite starting 7-0 and being 6-1 against the spread, oddsmakers continue to doubt the Cougars.

Possessions could be hard to come by in this game. UCF will run the football from start to finish, and BYU would like to establish a ground attack as well. At the end of the day, BYU might only get 4-5 opportunities each half. Maximizing every possession and avoiding turnovers will be critical in this game.

If BYU forces UCF into 3rd & 5 or longer, they will win this game. Run defense on first and second down will be the difference between a win and a loss.

This author believes in the abilities of defensive coordinator Jay Hill. The Cougars were gashed in the run game last week, and this week was spent making adjustments to avoid the same fate against UCF. I think the BYU defense will look more like the defense of games 1-6 than the defense that showed up against Oklahoma State.

BYU's offense will be efficient in limited possessions, and will continue to show signs that they can be a balanced offense with LJ Martin in the lineup.

The BYU defense will force a timely turnover or two, like they do every game, and Jake Retzlaff will continue to improve as a passer.

BYU 31 | UCF 23