Score Prediction for No. 9 BYU Football at Utah

Casey Lundquist | Nov 9, 2024

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff against Arizona / BYU Photo

The BYU-Utah rivalry is back. For the first time since 2010, the Cougars and the Utes will square off as conference foes in a game with conference title implications. No. 9 BYU stands alone in first place in the Big 12 and the Cougars control their own destiny to the College Football Playoff. The Utes, on the other hand, are desperate to end their four-game losing streak. Here is our score prediction for the rivalry game.

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff has gone from being in a contested quarterback battle in Fall camp to the face of the program. Retzlaff has gotten better and better as the season has progressed. He faces his toughest test of the season thus far on the road at Utah. Retzlaff will need to take care of the football while finding opportunities to create chunk plays. Long, sustained drives against this Utah defense will be hard to come by. Retzlaff will need to create some big plays like he has all season long.

BYU running back LJ Martin will play a critical role in this game. If BYU is going to move the ball consistently, they will need Martin to be effective on the ground. Historically, Utah has always been good against the run. This year, they haven't been as dominant. The Utes rank 59th in yards allowed per carry. If BYU can establish some semblance of a rushing attack, it will create play action opportunities for Jake Retzlaff.

The BYU defense against the Utah offense is the mismatch of the game. BYU's defense has been one of the best nationally at taking the ball away, while Utah has been one of the worst offenses when it comes to protecting the football. The data suggests that BYU should force a turnover or two in this game. The question will be whether Utah has the offensive firepower to make up for that or not. Over the last four games, Utah's offense has been one of the worst nationally. Perhaps a quarterback change could give them a spark. If BYU wins the turnover margin by two or more, this game could get out of hand.

Capitalizing on scoring opportunities will be the name of the game in this one. Utah's defense is one of the best redzone defenses in the country while BYU's offense has been good at capitalizing in scoring opportunities throughout the season. If BYU is kicking too many field goals, Utah will be able to hang around in this game.

I expect Utah's offense to be improved after a week off. The Utes will probably try some new wrinkles, starting by incorporating the quarterback in the run game. I also expect Utah to be very aggressive on defense to try to force Jake Retzlaff into mistakes. If Retzlaff can diagnose a few things pre-snap and take advantage of Utah's aggressiveness, there should be opportunities for chunk plays.

I don't imagine a scenario where Utah's offense is able to string together multiple long, sustained drives. Over the last two games, Utah's offense has produced just two touchdown drives of more than 30 yards. Both of those touchdowns came off explosive plays. BYU will prevent the Utah offense from scoring if they prevent big plays, and we think they will.

These games are weird, so we're predicting a less traditional score. BYU wins by double digits for the first time since 1996.

Utah 16 | BYU 26