Seven Things BYU Fans Should Watch For When the First CFP Rankings Come Out

Casey Lundquist | Nov 5, 2024

Lavell Edwards Stadium - BYU vs SIU / BYU Photo

On Tuesday evening, the first edition of the 2024 College Football Playoff rankings will be released. The teams in the College Football Playoffs, which will feature 12 teams for the first time, will be determined by the College Football Playoff rankings. When the rankings are released, BYU will be ranked in the CFP rankings for the first time since 2021. Here are seven things BYU fans should watch for when the rankings are unveiled.

1. Where Will BYU be Ranked Relative to Miami and Indiana?

BYU is one of five undefeated teams in the FBS. The other four are Oregon, Miami, Indiana, and Army. Oregon will be ranked no. 1 in the country. The order of Miami, BYU, and Indiana will be the most important thing for BYU fans to look for.

BYU has the best wins between BYU, Indiana, and Miami. The Cougars have a road win over otherwise unbeaten SMU (more on the Mustangs in a moment), and a win over Kansas State who will likely be ranked.

Miami's best win is over three-loss Louisville, while Indiana has not beaten a team that is receiving votes in the AP poll.

If the committee values quality wins, there is a case for BYU to be ranked ahead of Miami and Louisville. If the committee refers to advanced metrics like FPI and SP+, they will likely rank the Hoosiers and the Hurricanes in front of the Cougars.

This is important because for BYU's resume, a lot of the hay is alread in the barn. Meaning there are not a lot of opportunities to get more signature wins. If BYU is not ranked ahead of Miami and/or Indiana on Tuesday night, it will be challenging for BYU to leapfrog them later on unless one of them loses.

2. How Will the Committee View the Big 12 in General?

In a world where the media mostly cares about the Big Ten and the SEC, how will the committee view the Big 12? Pay attention to not only BYU, but Iowa State, Kansas State, and Colorado. The committee respected the Big 12 a lot when Texas and Oklahoma were in the conference. What about the new 16-team version of the league? If the committee is favorable towards the Big 12, the league will have the chance to get two teams into the College Football Playoff. If Iowa State, for example, is ranked behind multiple two-loss SEC teams after just one loss, it's hard to see the Big 12 getting two teams into the field.

3. How Will the Committee Handle Two-Loss SEC Teams?

Speaking of two-loss SEC teams, there are a lot of them. Two-loss SEC teams Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M are ranked a few spots behind BYU in the AP poll. How will the committee view those four teams? If any of them are ranked in front of BYU, it means BYU's at-large chances are slim at best. If all four of them are ranked behind BYU (which they should be - in the opinion of this author), it will mean that BYU could have a shot to make the CFP even if they don't win the Big 12 championship.

4. Keep an Eye Out for Notre Dame

The CFP typically loves to have Notre Dame in the field. Notre Dame has a good win over Texas A&M (that looked great until the Aggies were dominated on the road last week), but they also have the worst loss of the season against NIU. BYU and Notre Dame have been trading places in the AP poll over the last three weeks. It will be very telling to see how the committee views Notre Dame compared to BYU.

5. How Much Credit will the Committee Give One-Loss Teams?

Speaking of one-loss teams like Notre Dame, there are a lot of one-loss teams in the current AP top 10. How much credit will the committee give teams like BYU that are unbeaten? Last year, the committee really valued the accomplishment of going undefeated. There were five unbeaten P5 teams going into the first ranking and those five teams made up the top five.

If the committee values an undefeated P4 team, the Cougars could leapfrog one or two of the one-loss teams that are currently ahead of them in the AP poll. Teams like Tennessee, Penn State, and Texas. Penn State and Texas, for example, lack a signature win. Will the committee punish them for that? Or will they be given credit for losing to elite teams like they have in the AP poll.

If those one-loss teams are ranked ahead of BYU, the path to an at-large bid would get more narrow for BYU.

6. Keep an Eye on Army and Boise State

The four highest-ranked conference champions get the top four seeds in the CFP and the fifth highest-rated conference champion gets an automatic bid to the first round. It's most likely that the four Power Four champions will get those byes, but it is not guaranteed.

BYU fans need to keep an eye out for Boise State and Army in the first CFP rankings. Ideally, there will be a lot of room between BYU and those two schools in the rankings. What Big 12 fans should be cheering against is the potential for one of those teams to steal one of the top four seeds.

The committee has never looked at G5 teams favorably. That hurt BYU in the past, but it would help this year if the committee viewed G5 teams in a similar light.

7. Where will SMU Be Ranked?

SMU is BYU's best win of the 2024 season. The Mustangs crushed previously undefeated Pitt on Saturday. BYU fans will want to watch for SMU in the rankings for two reasons:

1. The higher their ranking, the better that win will be on BYU's resume
2. The SMU ranking will be BYU's floor if the Cougars lose a game

If both BYU and SMU have one loss, BYU will be ranked higher than the Mustangs thanks to the head-to-head win. The SMU ranking will give BYU fans an idea for the floor they could expect if BYU loses a game in November.