SP+ Believes BYU is the Favorite to Win the Big 12

Casey Lundquist | Oct 29, 2024

BYU linebackers Isaiah Glasker and Aisea Moa make a tackle against UCF / BYU Photo

BYU is 8-0 overall and 5-0 in conference play. Since Iowa State was idle last weekend, the Cougars are in sole possession of first place in the conference standings. BYU has a bye this week before taking on archrival Utah next week.

Even when BYU was winning games and maintaining its perfect record in early October, the advanced metrics never believed BYU was the favorite to win the Big 12. That changed after BYU traveled to UCF and handled the Knights in Orlando. SP+, a predictive algorithm created by ESPN's Bill Connelly, has BYU as the Big 12 favorite after week nine.

SP+ gives BYU a 34% chance to win the Big 12, just ahead of Kansas State (30%), Iowa State (27%), and well ahead of Colorado (5%) who is a distant fourth.

According to SP+, it's really a three-way race as there is a 91% chance that either BYU, Kansas State, or Iowa State will win the Big 12. Colorado continues to lurk, however, and the Buffaloes' schedule sets up nicely for them to make a run. Colorado can't be counted out unless they lose a game in November.

Not only is BYU the favorite to win the Big 12 according to SP+, BYU is also the Big 12 team with the best odds to go to the College Football Playoff. SP+ gives BYU a 57.2% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Iowa State and Kansas State are next in line with a 45.6% chance and 38.9% chance to get into the playoff, respectively. Colorado also has a slim chance to get into the playoff at 7.0%.

The Big 12 has a legitimate chance to get two teams in if BYU, Iowa State, and Kansas State play well in November.