SP+ Gives BYU Football a 21% Chance to Reach Bowl Eligibility

Casey Lundquist | Jul 9, 2024

Nov 18, 2023; Provo, Utah, USA; Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) celebrates a touchdown with tight end Isaac Rex (83) in the second quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports / Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

On Tuesday, ESPN's Bill Connelly released his annual Big 12 preview. In the preview, Connelly included the odds for each team to reach six or more wins according to SP+. BYU was given a 21.2% chance to reach six or more wins. That was near the bottom of the Big 12, ahead of Colorado (14%), Houston (8%), and Arizona State (8%).

BYU's strength of schedule is a major reason for the low odds of making a bowl game. For example, BYU is ranked ahead of Cincinnati in the preseason SP+ rankings. However, Cincinnati has a much lighter schedule, and therefore a 39% chance to reach bowl eligibility.

BYU has one of the toughest schedules in the conference. The Cougars are set to play all five teams that were picked at the top of the Big 12. On the bright side, BYU gets four out of those five teams at home. If BYU can protect Lavell Edwards Stadium in 2024, they will exceed expectations.

Below are the Big 12 title odds according to SP+ and the odds of each team winning six or more games.

Big 12 Title Odds According to SP+

1. Kansas State (23.3%)
2. Utah (21.9%)
3. Arizona (12.0%)
4. Oklahoma State (11.5%)
5. Iowa State (6.5%)
6. Kansas (5.7%)
7. TCU (5.1%)
8. WVU (5.1%)
9. Texas Tech (3.1%)
10. UCF (2.5%)
11. Baylor 1.1%)
12. BYU (0.6%)
13. Cincinnati (0.5%)
14. Colorado (0.4%)
15. Houston (0.3%)
16. Arizona State (0.2%)

Odds of Six or More Wins

1. Kansas State (99.6%)
2. Utah (99.6%)
3. Arizona (98.4%)
4. Oklahoma State (96.2%)
5. Kansas (93.8%)
6. Iowa State (90.4%)
7. Texas Tech (86.1%)
8. TCU (85.1%)
9. WVU (78.2%)
10. UCF (74.5%)
11. Baylor (42.9%)
12. Cincinnati (38.8%)
13. BYU (21.2%)
14. Colorado (13.8%)
15. Houston (8.1%)
16. Arizona State (7.9%)