SP+ Predicts No. 11 BYU Football at UCF, Forecasts Three-Team Race for Big 12 Title

Casey Lundquist | Oct 23, 2024

BYU wide receiver Darius Lassiter scores game-winning touchdown against Oklahoma State / BYU Photo

Kalani Sitake and the BYU football program will hit the road this weekend to take on the UCF Knights. The Cougars and the Knights last played each other in 2020 in the Boca Raton Bowl. This will be the first matchup between these two teams as conference foes. BYU and UCF joined the Big 12 alongside Cincinnati and Houston in 2023.

The Cougars are looking to remain unbeaten, potentially crack the top 10, and remain in the lead for the Big 12 conference title. UCF, on the other hand, is desperate for a win after losing four consecutive games.

SP+, founded by ESPN's Bill Connelly, cemented its prediction for BYU-UCF. SP+ gives BYU a 58% chance to win with an expected final score of 30-26. SP+ is more bullish on BYU's chances than both ESPN FPI and oddsmakers. FPI gives BYU just a 45.5% chance to win and oddsmakers currently favor UCF by 1.5 points.

Big 12 Title Odds Per SP+

In an article about each power four conference and their title contenders, Bill Connelly broke down the Big 12 championship race. According to SP+, Iowa State has the best chance to win the Big 12 with BYU just behind the Cyclones. At this point of the season, it looks like a three-way race between Iowa State, BYU, and Kansas State.

Iowa State - 30.1% chance to win the Big 12
BYU - 28.2% chance to win the Big 12
Kansas State - 26.7% chance to win the Big 12

Those three teams have an 85% chance to win the conference. Other outside contenders include Colorado (5.4%) and Cincinnati (4.5%), Texas Tech (1.9%), and TCU (1.8%).

If Colorado beats Cincinnati this weekend, the Buffaloes will have a legitimate chance to win out and make a run at the title game.

BYU has the best win in conference play over Kansas State. That win could come in handy down the road if BYU is in a tiebreak scenario with Kansas State.