SP+ Predicts No. 13 Kansas State at BYU

Casey Lundquist | Sep 17, 2024

A sellout crowd at Lavell Edwards Stadium takes in BYU's season-opening win over Southern Illinois / BYU Photo

In this story:

BYU Cougars

On Saturday night, the BYU football program will take the field against no. 13 Kansas State to open conference play. This will be the first matchup between BYU and Kansas State since the Cougars beat the Wildcats in the 1997 Cotton Bowl. SP+, a predictive algorithm created by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted Kansas State at BYU.

SP+ gives BYU a 27% chance to win with an projected final score of 32-23 in favor of the Wildcats. SP+ is slightly less optimistic about BYU's chances to win this game than ESPN FPI and the oddsmakers.

FPI gives BYU a 30% chance to win outright and the oddsmakers expect a closer game than SP+. BYU opened as a 7.5-point underdog in Vegas.

The game against Kansas State will be a great barometer to gauge how much better BYU is in 2024 compared to 2023.

On paper, BYU is better by every metric. The eye test also suggests that they are improved compared to last season. Putting that improvement on display against a team like Kansas State, however, would remove any doubt.

Will BYU's gaudy defensive numbers hold up against a talented Kansas State offense? Can Jake Retzlaff play as well against Kansas State as he did against Southern Illinois and Wyoming? Or will he regress like he did against SMU?

This night game under the lights will answer a lot of questions about BYU.

For the Cougars, this game could come down to quarterback play. Through three weeks, Kansas State's defense has been very good against the run. The Wildcats are averaging 80.3 rushing yards per game which ranks 24th nationally. Against the pass, the Wildcats have struggled at times. They have allowed 236 passing yards per game which ranks 93rd in the country. Against FBS teams Tulane and Arizona, Kansas State allowed 305 passing yards per game.

Jake Retzlaff is averaging 280 passing yards per game for BYU. He also leads the country in "big-time throws" according to PFF. Retzlaff's issues have been in the form of turnovers. Turnovers have plagued Retzlaff during his seven starts at BYU.

If Retzlaff can take care of the football, the BYU defense is good enough to keep this game competitive.

Published Sep 17, 2024

CASEY LUNDQUIST

Casey Lundquist is the publisher and lead editor of Cougs Daily. He has covered BYU athletics for the last four years. During that time, he has published over 2,000 stories that have reached more than three million people.