SP+ Predicts No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State

Casey Lundquist | 5 Hours Ago

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff against UCF / BYU Photo

On Saturday afternoon, no. 14 BYU hits the road to take on no. 21 Arizona State in a potential conference title elimination game. The Cougars and the Sun Devils, both of which were picked near the bottom of the Big 12, are now playing a late November game with potential College Football Playoff implications. That's a sentence we didn't expect to type back in August.

SP+, a predictive algorithm created by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-ASU. SP+ gives BYU a 56% chance to win with an expected final score of 27-25 in favor of the Cougars. SP+ is more optimistic about BYU's chances than both ESPN FPI and the oddsmakers. According to the oddsmakers, BYU is an underdog (+3) in this game and ESPN FPI gives BYU 44.3% chance to win.

For BYU, this game will likely come down to redzone execution. It was redzone execution that was BYU's downfall in its first loss of the season to Kansas. The Cougars converted four redzone trips into only six points. Earlier this season, BYU was great in the redzone. Over the last two games, that trend has changed.

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff will need to have one of his best games of the season for BYU to win this game. Fortunately for Retzlaff, he should have a chance to be great. Retzlaff is one of the best passers in the country when he is not pressured. Arizona State's primary weakness on defense is its pass rush. If BYU's offensive line can give Retzlaff time to throw, BYU could move the ball very well against Arizona State.

This is also a game that needs to be a Jay Hill masterpiece. Arizona State doesn't have any obvious weaknesses on offense. Cam Skattebo is a dynamic running back. Jordyn Tyson is a true WR1, and quarterback Sam Leavitt is a dual-threat quarterback that has protected the football. The Sun Devils are dangerous, but so is Jay Hill when he knows which quarterback he is preparing for.