SP+ Predicts No. 22 BYU at Baylor

Casey Lundquist | Sep 24, 2024

BYU wide receiver Darius Lassiter against Kansas State / BYU Photo

On Saturday morning, the BYU football program will take the field against the Baylor Bears for the first road contest in conference play. This will be the first matchup between BYU and Baylor since the Cougars beat the Bears in double overtime in 2022. SP+, a predictive algorithm created by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted BYU at Baylor.

SP+ gives BYU a 50% chance to win with an projected final score of 26-26. In other words, SP+ expects a tossup. SP+ is slightly less optimistic about BYU's chances to win this game than ESPN FPI and the oddsmakers. FPI gives BYU a 52% chance to win this game.

SP+ likes BYU against the spread. As of this writing, Baylor is favored by 3.5 points after opening as a 2.5-point favorite.

On paper, BYU has been the better team by a wide margin. The Bears, however, have started to find some answers on offense under quarterback Sawyer Robertson. Baylor will be highly motivated in this game. Following the loss at Colorado, Baylor vowed not to go 3-9 again like they did a year ago.

Additionally, the kickoff time adds a layer of complexity to this game. This game will kickoff in the early window: 10 AM Mountain Time. BYU has struggled in early morning/afternoon games over the last few years. Every game in 2024 has been in the evening.

The game at Baylor will be a great test for this BYU football team. It will give the Cougars another opportunity to make another statement as an underdog. A win would prove that BYU is worthy of its top 25 ranking.