SP+ Predicts No. 7 BYU Football vs Kansas

Casey Lundquist | Nov 12, 2024

Sep 23, 2023; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Brigham Young Cougars wide receiver Darius Lassiter (5) runs with the ball against Kansas Jayhawks cornerback Kwinton Lassiter (8) during the first half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

On Saturday, BYU will look to avoid a letdown game against Kansas following an emotional win over rival Utah. The Jayhawks have underperformed this season. Once viewed as a contender to win the league, Kansas is 2-4 in conference play. However, Kansas has been competitive in every game, they've just failed to win close games. Additionally, Kansas has started to play better over the last few weeks - they are coming off a convincing win over Iowa State. The opposite has been true for BYU. The Cougars are undefeated and 4-0 in one-score games. SP+, a predictive metric created by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-Kansas.

SP+ gives BYU a 69% chance to win with an expected final score of 33-25 in favor of the Cougars. SP+ is more optimistic about BYU's chances than both oddsmakers and ESPN FPI. FPI gives BYU a 61% chance to win and BYU is currently favored by just a field goal according to oddsmakers.

In the SP+ rankings, BYU is currently up to 22nd overall. BYU is balanced - the Cougars rank 31st in both offensive and defensive efficiency and 18th in special teams.

Kansas is not as balanced. The Jayhawks are led by a high-powered offense that ranks 28th nationally, but their defense has been mediocre at 70th in the country. Their combined SP+ ranking is 42nd overall.

This game will come down to the BYU defense and whether they are able to contain a dangerous Kansas offense. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels, who beat BYU last season, has been playing very well over the last few weeks.