Teams that BYU Fans Should Start Cheering Against

Casey Lundquist | Oct 16, 2024

Oct 5, 2024; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (13) gestures for a first down against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium. / David Banks-Imagn Images

BYU is 6-0 and firmly in contention for the Big 12 championship. This potentially special season comes at literally the best time in college football history: the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff. While Kalani Sitake and the BYU football team are focused on one game at a time, BYU fans are allowed to start looking ahead to potential scenarios that could land BYU in the first ever 12-team playoff.

Thanks to the expanded playoff, BYU has two paths to get there: win the Big 12 championship or earn an at-large bid. If BYU wins the Big 12 championship, they are in. While winning the conference is the only way to secure a spot, an at-large bid is still a possibility as well.

If BYU goes 10-2 or better, they will have a chance to earn an at-large bid. An 11-1 record would almost surely secure them an at-large bid while a 10-2 record would probably require enough teams in front of them to lose and fall below BYU in the rankings. FPI gives BYU a 28% chance to finish 11-1 or better and a 56% chance of finishing 10-2 or better. In other words, FPI believes it's more likely than not that BYU will at least have a chance to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff come season's end.

How high would BYU need to be ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings? At minimum, no. 12. If one of the five highest-ranked conference champions is outside the top 12, BYU would have to be ranked no. 11 or better to earn an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff.

In the scenario that BYU does not win the Big 12 championship but is still in contention for an at-large birth, let's look at the teams that surround BYU in the rankings. Who are the teams that BYU fans should be cheering against? It could pay dividends down the road if the following teams lose a few games.

1. Notre Dame

Notre Dame defensive lineman Rylie Mills (99) and linebacker Jack Kiser (24) celebrate a sack by Mills during a NCAA college football game between Notre Dame and Stanford at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Most difficult games remaining: at USC, at Navy

You won't have to do a lot of convincing to get BYU fans cheering against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are 5-1 with one great win (at Texas A&M) and one ugly loss (vs NIU). Notre Dame tends to get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to rankings, so the more they lose the better. They are only eligibile for an at-large birth, so an 11-1 or 10-2 Notre Dame could get in BYU's way.

2. Clemson, Pitt, and Miami

Oct 5, 2024; Berkeley, California, USA; Miami Hurricanes tight end Elijah Arroyo (8) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the California Golden Bears during the fourth quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Clemson's most difficult games remaining: at Pitt, vs South Carolina
Miami's most difficult games remaining: at Louisville, at Syracuse
Pitt's most difficult games remaining: at SMU, vs Clemson

Clemson, Miami, Pitt and SMU are the ACC frontrunners right now. Since BYU has a head-to-head win over SMU, it would benefit BYU if SMU continues to win. Clemson, Miami, and Pitt, on the other hand, need to start losing.

Miami has narrowly escaped its last two games. Pitt has needed a few miraculous comebacks to stay undefeated. It seems like their undefeated seasons are not sustainable.

The good news is that Clemson and Pitt will play each other, so one of them has at least one loss baked in.

3. The Imperfect SEC Teeams Need to Cannibalize Themselves - And They Probably Will

Oct 12, 2024; Amherst, Massachusetts, USA; Missouri Tigers wide receiver Joshua Manning (0) reacts to his touchdown against the Massachusetts Minutemen during the second half at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Most Difficult Remaining Games
Tennessee: vs Alabama, at Georgia (likely eliminated with two more losses)
Alabama: at LSU, at Tennessee, vs Missouri (likely eliminated with two more losses)
Georgia: at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs Tennessee (likely eliminated with two more losses)
LSU: at Texas A&M, vs Alabama (likely eliminated with two more losses)
Texas A&M: vs LSU, vs Texas (likely eliminated with two more losses)
Ole Miss: at Alabama, at South Carolina (likely eliminated with one more loss)
Missouri: at Alabama, at South Carolina (likely eliminated with two more losses)

It's safe to say the SEC will be given the benefit of the doubt by the CFP committee. BYU needs as many SEC teams as possible to have three losses or more to have the best chance to earn an at-large bid. Upsets like Arkansas over Tennessee and Vanderbilt over Alabama could really help BYU down the road. At SEC team that already has at least one loss is a threat to take an at-large bid. Multiple teams fit that description: Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Missouri.

By default, a large portion of these teams will beat each other up.

4. The Big Ten Has Some Losing to Do

Most Difficult Games Remaining
Indiana: vs Michigan, at Ohio State, vs Nebraska
Nebraska: at Indiana, at Ohio State, at USC
Illinois: at Oregon, vs Michigan

The Big Ten has three 6-0 teams and three 5-1 teams. Those teams need to start losing, especially Indiana, Illinois, and Nebraska. If any of those teams goes 10-2 or better, they would likely get a bid over a 10-2 BYU team. It's hard to foresee a scenario where Ohio State and Penn State lose enough games to drop out of the College Football Playoff.