The Next Four Games Will Determine BYU's Conference Title Hopes

Casey Lundquist | 6 Hours Ago

Sep 28, 2024; Waco, Texas, USA; Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Baylor Bears during the first half at McLane Stadium. / Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Five games down, seven to go. The Cougars took an unblemished record into the bye week. On Saturday, the Cougars will be back in action again when they take on the Arizona Wildcats. The FOX Big Noon Kickoff show will be onsite to feature the matchup. There are a lot of exciting things going on in Provo. BYU is firmly in conference title contention and the opportunity for a special season is on the table.

The next four weeks will determine whether this hype train continues to roll or comes to an abrupt stop. On paper, the final three games should be manageable for the Cougars. BYU's schedule sets up nicely in that way. The final seven games as a whole don't look as daunting as initially anticipated. The next four games, however, are the swing games. BYU has a challenging slate upcoming: Arizona, Oklahoma State, at UCF, and at Utah.

Today, we're talking about the different scenarios for the upcoming four games and how it would impact BYU's Big 12 title chances.

4-0 Would Put BYU in the Driver's Seat

A 4-0 record over the next four games would put BYU's chances to make the Big 12 title game around 80%-90%. The Cougars would be ranked firmly in the top 10, and College Football Playoff seeding would become a consideration.

Maintaining an undefeated record will be a tall order, however. FPI gives BYU just a 7% to go 4-0 over the next four games.

Going 4-0 would likely put BYU in the conference championship game even if they stumbled once over the last three games.

3-1 BYU Probably Controls Its Own Destiny

Going 3-1, in the opinion of this author, would probably be enough to allow BYU to control its own destiny over the last three games. Really, that's all BYU can ask for going into a final slate that includes Kansas, Arizona State, and Houston.

BYU will hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas State. That might be the difference between controlling your own destiny or not. I fully expect Kansas State to be in conference title contention come the end of November.

FPI gives BYU a 28% chance to go 3-1 and a 35% chance to go 3-1 or better.

2-2 Is the Minimum Requirement

If BYU is going to stay in the conference title race, a 2-2 record over the next four games is the minimum requirement. A 7-2 BYU team could make the Big 12 title game. However, they would likely need a tiebreaker or two to go their way to get in. Still, it's important to remember that perfection is not required over the next four games. A 2-2 record would be enough to keep the dream of a special season alive.

2-2 is the most likely record according to FPI at 39%. If 2-2 is the minimum requirement, FPI likes BYU's chances to remain in the conference title race after the next four games. FPI gives BYU a 74% chance to be 2-2 or better.

1-3 Is Not Enough

A 1-3 record or worse would not be enough to keep BYU's conference title hopes alive. FPI gives BYU a 26% chance to go 1-3 or worse.

BYU's chances to make the Big 12 title game would materially increase with a win over Arizona on Saturday. BYU would have a 47% chance to be 8-1 or better if they beat the Wildcats.