Three Conference Realignment Moves that Make Sense for BYU, Three that Don't

It's been almost a month since Texas and Oklahoma accepted invitations to join the SEC beginning no later than 2025. Now that the dust has settled, at least for

It's been almost a month since Texas and Oklahoma accepted invitations to join the SEC beginning no later than 2025. Now that the dust has settled, at least for the time being, let's check in on conference realignment and how it could impact BYU athletics. Here are three conference realignment moves that would make sense for BYU, and three that would not make sense for BYU.

Credit: BYU Photo

Author note: This is an opinion piece that integrates the latest public information surrounding conference realignment. Things change quickly with conference realignment - what is true today might not be true tomorrow. After all, who would have predicted the Texas-Oklahoma move back in May?

Three moves that make sense for BYU

1. BYU to the PAC-12 as football-only member

In today's college football landscape, no move would make more sense for BYU than joining the PAC-12 as a football-only member. The benefits are obvious for the Cougars: BYU would become a member of a P5 conference in football, the money would be better, BYU would be a fit geographically with the PAC-12, and it would make the BYU-Utah rivalry relevant, at least from a conference-standings perspective, once again.

Joining as a football-only member would also avoid some of the hurdles that have automatically disqualified BYU from these conversations in the past. For example, it would solve the no-Sunday play obstacle that BYU has always faced. The PAC-12 non-football sports regularly play conference games on Sunday's. The PAC-12 could invite BYU as a football-only member and avoid the logistical headaches that would come with a full-fledged membership.

The obvious question remains: would the PAC-12 want to add BYU? In the past, the answer has been a definitive 'no'. This time around, PAC-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff will at least meet with BYU. In a recent interview with the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Kliavkoff said the PAC-12 is taking "initial meetings with everyone who has expressed interest." You can read his full quote below.

 “I think we’re really, really happy with the 12 that we have in the league. The opportunity to revisit that following Texas and Oklahoma has certainly presented itself. I am not actively poaching any school or convincing anyone to leave their existing conference, but I wouldn’t be doing my job if I wasn’t listening to schools that wanted to go in the Pac-12, and we’ve had a lot of them reach out. Probably all of the ones you would expect and several you’d be surprised by.

“We have taken initial meetings with everyone that has expressed an interest. We have a working group … who are together deciding on what to recommend … At the end of the day, they’ll make the decision about whether or not to offer admission to the Pac-12 to any other schools.” - PAC-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff to the Las Vegas Review-Journal

If the PAC-12 wants BYU, would the PAC-12 consider football-only members?

According to recent comments by Washington State President Kirk Schulz to Pac-12 Hotline’s Jon Wilner, football-only invitations have at least been considered by the PAC-12. According to my knowledge, this is the first public statement by a PAC-12 stakeholder that has entertained the possibility of adding football-only members. You can read his quote below. Schulz was the President at Kansas State in 2010 when the Big 12 was on the losing end of conference realignment shifts.

“I called George and told him that I’ve been through it before. I wanted to make sure we weren’t sitting on the sideline. And he said, ‘I have six options for us.’

“He’s thinking deeply about these things. Should we be in the acquisition mode? Should we look to add members? Should they be football-only members? Should we consider a schedule alliance?"  - Washington State President Kirk Schulz

Even if the PAC-12 wanted to add BYU, there are various hurdles that could derail an invitation. So many, in fact, that a BYU-PAC-12 marriage feels less likely than a Lloyd Christmas-Mary Swanson marriage. From BYU's perspective, however, this is still the best-case conference realignment scenario. 

The PAC-12 will soon decide its expansion plans. In the same interview with the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Kliavkoff said the PAC-12 would like to make their expansion decision "in the next couple of weeks."

“There’s no hard deadline related to any of this, but I would say I don’t think it’s good for college athletics given the vibration that’s going on as a result of the Texas and Oklahoma news. The quicker we can dampen that vibration, the better. We will have a decision on whether we intend to expand or not in the next couple of weeks.” - PAC-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff to the Las Vegas Review-Journal

2. BYU to the Big 12, if the Big 12 retains its autonomous status

In an earlier article, we outlined the conditions that would need to be met before BYU would join the Big 12. You can read them here. Accepting an invitation to an eroded Big 12 is not a slam dunk for BYU who has arrived at the scheduling prime of independence. In addition, it's not a foregone conclusion that the Big 12 would want to invite BYU. They have rejected BYU in the past, and they could decide to expand East and invite schools like UCF, Memphis, Houston or Cincinnati. There are many scenarios where the Big 12 could expand without BYU. And even if the Big 12 wanted BYU, there would be some hurdles that BYU would have to overcome prior to joining the Big 12.

If the Big 12 retains its autonomous status (AKA P5 status) when the dust settles, accepting a Big 12 invite would make sense for BYU if the other conditions are met.

3. Joining a new and improved AAC

If the AAC poaches a few leftovers from the Big 12 and expands West, a move to the AAC could hold-water for BYU. Of course, the money would need to be better and the AAC would need to provide a better path to national relevance. There are multiple variables that, if changed, could flip this move from advantageous to disadvantageous or vice versa. Simply put, BYU could join the AAC in a new college football landscape if the stars aligned.

Three moves that don't make sense for BYU

1. Joining the Big 12 leftovers of the leftovers

The Big 12 is down to only eight members:

1. Baylor
2. Iowa State
3. Kansas
4. Kansas State
5. Oklahoma State
6. TCU
7. Texas Tech
8. West Virginia

If the PAC-12 or the ACC poach some of the abandoned schools. the Big 12 could dissolve in a matter of weeks. The Big 12 will almost certainly lose its autonomous status if it is raided a third time. In that case, a move to the Big 12 does not make sense for BYU.

2. Joining the AAC in the current landscape

In the current college football landscape, a move to the American Athletic Conference does not make sense for BYU, even though the AAC has become the premier G5 league in college football. Geographically speaking, BYU-to-the-AAC is not reasonable. I don't believe the move would benefit BYU financially. Although we can't be sure as BYU does not disclose their financials.

If BYU joined the current AAC, they would have to swap currently-scheduled games like USC, Baylor, Virginia, and Washington State for games against the likes of Tulane, Memphis, UCF, and Houston. In this author's opinion, the pros would not outweigh the cons.

3. Joining the Mountain West conference

There's a reason BYU left the Mountain West for independence. There are very few scenarios where a return to the Mountain West would make sense for BYU.