Three Dominoes That Could Initiate the Next Conference Realignment Moves

Conference realignment rumors have consumed college football fans over the last two weeks

It's been over a week since USC and UCLA ditched the PAC-12 for a larger paycheck in the Big Ten. In the days following that landscape-altering move, rumors of Big 12 expansion, conference mergers, and other realignment rumors have consumed college football fans.

Realignment has paused while conferences sort through their options and conversations take place behind closed doors. Today, we look at three dominoes that could initiate the next conference realignment moves.

1. The Reported PAC-12/ACC Partnership Falls Flat

Last week, both CBS Sports and The Athletic reported that the Big 12 was aggressively pursuing expansion. CBS described the Big 12 as being in "deep discussions to add multiple Pac-12 programs." A day later, The Athletic confirmed the report, saying the Big 12 "is having 'serious' talks with six Pac-12 schools — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Utah and Washington — and is determined to move quickly."

A few days later, Pete Thamel described those reports as "overstated". "The extent of the Big 12's discussions with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah were overstated in reports this week were overstated," Thamel wrote. "But there's certainly been back channel conversations and interest."

What can we make of these conflicting reports?

It's impossible to know what conversations these journalists are having behind the scenes, but it's likely that the information being leaked from PAC-12 sources is different from the information coming from Big 12 sources. For TV purposes, the PAC-12 is motivated to leak a message of togetherness to inquiring journalists. So even while PAC-12 schools flirt with other conferences, it's important for them to appear loyal and committed to the PAC-12. The Big 12 has different motives and would stand to benefit if the PAC-12 broke up. 

A few days after the USC-UCLA move, the PAC-12 announced that it would accelerate the timeline of its next media rights negotiation. "The Pac-12 Board of Directors met this morning and authorized the Conference to immediately begin negotiations for its next media rights agreements," the PAC-12 said in a statement.

Opening media negotiations gave the PAC-12 schools a minute to breathe, slow down, and explore new tv opportunities before making any drastic decisions. Until the PAC-12 schools explore all options with their current conference, it is in their best interest to publicly communicate loyalty to each other. The first way to publicly communicate a message is by releasing a statement, which most PAC-12 schools have done. Another way is to leak that message to college football reporters. After all, which network would want to bid on a conference that is on the verge of collapse?

Towards the end of last week, reports surfaced that the PAC-12 and ACC were exploring a tv partnership. Details of the partnership have not been completely ironed out, but the PAC-12 and ACC could schedule non-conference games and potentially stage a championship game featuring the PAC-12 champion against the ACC champion. Those conversations are ongoing, and the schools are supposed to receive some revenue projections this week.

That's when the plan might fall apart. "That's where there's some bottom-line skepticism," Pete Thamel said on the financial potential of the financial potential rumored partnership. "If the number crunching on the ACC arrangement with the Pac-12 come back underwhelming financially -- and that's the expectation -- things could potentially go from collegial to predatory in a number of directions."

If the valuations turn out underwhelming, it could be the domino that pushes Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, or Colorado, now nicknamed the four corner schools, to more seriously consider a move to the Big 12. 

2. PAC-12 Paranoia 

The 10 remaining PAC-12 schools could stick together or grab a pair of Mountain West schools to get back to 12. In that scenario, Oregon and Washington would be the top brands in the conference and the other schools might have to offer Oregon and Washington some contractual benefits to stay. One Washington outlet reported that the Huskies would "demand a larger share of the revenue pot, while accepting a short-term contract which would provide the flexibility to eventually leave."

Meanwhile, Oregon super donor and Nike founder Phil Knight was reportedly cold-calling to get Oregon in the Big Ten or SEC last week. So while the PAC-12 is communicating togetherness and loyalty, the individual actions of its two biggest brands are speaking louder than their words. Needless to say, Oregon and Washington would have one foot out the door even if they stay in the PAC-12. Maybe the invite would never come, Oregon and Washington would stay in the conference, and the PAC-12 would survive. Or maybe the Big Ten would extend the invitation, leaving the remaining eight schools to fend for themselves.

Put yourself in the position of Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, or Colorado. Would you agree to that deal when you are receiving interest from the Big 12? Sure, staying with two coveted brands has its merits. But mortgaging your future with Oregon and Washington could come with catastrophic long-term consequences.

Perhaps paranoia will set in if Oregon and Washington refuse to sign a new deal that would tether them to the PAC-12 long-term. A more secure future in the Big 12 could be too enticing to turn down for a school like Colorado or Arizona, and the Big 12 would be waiting to pounce. In that scenario, one school jumping to the Big 12 could turn into two, which could turn into four, which could turn into six.

The Big 12 is being aggressive, and decisions might come sooner rather than later. On the timing of Big 12 expansion, Dennis Dodd said, "The process of finalizing its membership -- at least from the Big 12 side -- could be completed in weeks, not months."

For now, it appears that Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado have to decide which conference gives them the best chance to be as competitive as possible in the future.

3. All Eyes on Notre Dame

Should Notre Dame give up its independence and join the Big Ten, it would create the next wave of realignment. Obviously, Notre Dame would need to be joined by at least one more school like Stanford or Oregon. According to numerous reports, Notre Dame is the Big Ten's top expansion target.

However, a decision from Notre Dame does not appear imminent. Notre Dame's current TV deal expires in 2025, and until then, the Fighting Irish can continue to operate as an independent and weigh their options.

"Notre Dame has time and leverage on its side," said Dennis Dodd in a report last week. "If it decides the money is too big to deny and/or access to a playoff becomes too difficult to sustain success, it may join the Big Ten." 

For now, conference realignment has paused. Whether the next domino falls in weeks, months, or even years, this round of realignment feel unfinished.