Three Keys to a BYU Upset Win Over SMU

Casey Lundquist | Sep 6, 2024

BYU captains take the field against Southern Illinois / BYU Photo

On Friday night, BYU kicks off week two of college football with a road game at SMU. The Cougars are double-digit underdogs. Here are three keys to a BYU upset win over SMU.

1. Avoid the catastrophic mistakes

You can't talk about BYU's 2023 season without the catastrophic mistakes. The scoop-and-score against Kansas to start Big 12 play, the pick-six against the Jayhawks that gave up the lead, the punt return against Arkansas, the pick-six against TCU to start the game, the double turnovers to start against Iowa State, and the infamous 100 yard pick-six against Oklahoma.

Not all turnovers are created equal. BYU was plagued by the catastrophic variety of turnovers throughout the 2023 campaign.

In a year when BYU was trying to punch above its weight as a first-year member of a power conference, catastrophic mistakes were constantly in the headlines.

That can't happen if BYU wants to beat SMU in Dallas on Friday night. The Mustangs are good enough and talented enough to beat BYU straight up. Spotting the Mustangs a touchdown will make it that much more difficult to pull off the road upset.

2. Convert in the redzone

The winner of this game will probably be the team that gets to 30 points first. Voice of the Cougars Greg Wrubell posted a fascinating stat ahead of Friday night's game: BYU is 42-4 under Kalani Sitake when scoring 30 points or more, and SMU is 18-1 under Rhett Lashlee when scoring 30 points or more.

30 and lovin' it: under Kalani Sitake, BYU is 42-4 (91.3% win rate) when scoring 30+ points. SMU under Rhett Lashlee is 18-1 (94.7%) when scoring 30 or more, with 16 consecutive wins at 30+ points.

— Greg Wrubell (@gregwrubell) September 4, 2024

If BYU is going to score 30 points or more against an SMU defense that allowed 17.8 points per game last season, the Cougars must convert in the redzone. Last week against the Salukis, three BYU drives stalled in SIU territory.

A field goal or two isn't the end of the world, but BYU will need to finish drives with touchdowns more often than not.

3. Limit the running production of SMU's two quarterbacks

Like most teams from Texas, SMU has a lot of talent at the skill positions. Through two games in 2023, SMU's top two skill players have been running back Brashard Smith and tight end RJ Maryland. Those two will certainly be a challenge to slow down, but they aren't the biggest threats to BYU's defense, at least not in the opinion of this author.

The biggest threat to the BYU defense is the rushing abilities of SMU's quarterbacks. The Mustangs will likely play both Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings at quarterback. Stone and Jennings are averaging 7.7 yards and 9.7 yards per carry this season, respectively.

If BYU can't stop the quarterback run game, getting off the field on third downs will be a challenge.