Three Keys to a BYU Victory Over Rival Utah

Casey Lundquist | Nov 8, 2024

Sep 11, 2021; Provo, Utah, USA; Utah Utes running back Tavion Thomas (9) is stopped by Brigham Young Cougars linebacker Keenan Pili (41) defensive back Ammon Hannemann (22) in the third quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Swinger-Imagn Images / Jeffrey Swinger-Imagn Images

The BYU-Utah rivalry is back. For the first time since 2010, the Cougars and the Utes will square off as conference foes in a game with major conference title implications. No. 9 BYU stands alone in first place in the Big 12 and the Cougars control their own destiny to the College Football Playoff. Here are three keys to a BYU victory over Utah.

1. Take Care of the Football

Let's start with the obvious: BYU needs to protect the football. On paper, this game shouldn't be close. BYU is at the top of the standings for a reason, and Utah is near the bottom of the standings for a reason too.

BYU is the better football team.

What's the quickest way for an inferior team to upset a top-10 team? Turnovers. Turnovers, and specifically pick-sixes, were the primary reason for BYU's nine-game losing streak against Utah. It's not a coincidence that when BYU broke the streak in 2021, they did so by committing to no turnovers.

During Utah's winning streak from 2010-2019, the Utes were typically one of the best teams nationally in forcing turnovers. That hasn't been the case in 2024 - forcing turnovers has been one of the few weaknesses of the Utah defense. The Utes have forced 10 turnovers in 8 games which ranks 81st nationally.

If BYU protects the football, they will have a very good chance to leave Rice Eccles with a win for the first time since 2006. If BYU can not only protect the football, but force some Utah turnovers as well, this game could become lopsided.

The numbers suggest BYU's defense has a great chance to create some turnovers against Utah. The Utes have thrown 12 interceptions which is tied for the third most nationally. BYU's defense ranks third nationally with 14 interceptions. BYU has at least one interception in every game this season.

2. Threaten Utah on the ground

The key for BYU's offense against Utah will be to threaten the Utah defense on the ground. That makes LJ Martin one of the most important players in this game for BYU. BYU's offense has reached a new heights with starting running back LJ Martin back in the lineup. Martin is coming off back-to-back games with more than 100 rushing yards.

Historically, Utah's defense has been one of the best nationally against the run. This season, Utah's defense has been vulnerable, at times, against the run. Utah's defense is allowing 4.0 yards per carry which ranks 59th nationally. If BYU can average 4.0 yards per carry or more, they will be very well positioned to win this game.

Utah's defense is one of the best nationally on third down. The Utes have allowed a 25% conversion rate on third down which ranks third nationally. If BYU is going to sustain drives, they will need to setup third-and-short situations. BYU's offense ranks 81st in third-down conversion rate. This is a weakness of BYU's offense going head-to-head with the strength of Utah's defense. This will be a true test for BYU.

Utah's defense ranks 13th nationally against the pass. BYU will not be able to consistently move the chains in third-and-long situations, and that's also a time where turnovers are more likely.

If BYU can move the ball effectively enough on the ground, the play-action opportunities will be there for Jake Retzlaff. It's safe to expect BYU to get LJ Martin involved early and often.

3. Win in the Redzone

If this game is a defensive battle, the team that takes advantage of redzone opportunities will win. BYU's offense has been good in the redzone in 2024. BYU averages 5.4 points per redzone possession which ranks 33rd nationally.

Utah's defense has been excellent in the redzone. The Utes are allowing 3.8 points per redzone possession which ranks 6th nationally.

Kalani Sitake will have to be very smart when it comes to taking points vs going for it on fourth down. Scoring 20 points will probably be enough to win this game. If there's an opportunity to take a field goal, it might be best to take it. Sitake has been aggressive all year long and it's safe to expect that he will be aggressive against Utah.

Utah's offense has been one of the worst redzone offenses in the country. The Utes are scoring just 4.37 points per redzone possession which ranks 116th nationally. BYU's defense has not been great in the redzone since the SMU game - the Cougars rank 73rd in points allowed per redzone possession.

Utah's offense will be able to move the ball at times. The BYU defense will need to be stout in the redzone and take advantage of that weakness for Utah's offense.