Three Keys to a BYU Win Over Arizona

Casey Lundquist | Oct 12, 2024

Sep 28, 2024; Waco, Texas, USA; Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) in action against the Baylor Bears during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images / Chris Jones-Imagn Images

After a two-week break, Kalani Sitake and the BYU football program are back in action. The Cougars host the Arizona Wildcats for the first time as Big 12 foes. The game will be featured by Big Noon Kickoff and will be televised on FOX. A win would put BYU firmly at the top of Big 12 title contention. Here are three keys to a BYU win over Arizona.

1. Put Noah Fifita in Third & Long Situations

If BYU is going to limit Arizona on Saturday, the Cougars need to put Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita in third & long situations. Noah Fifita is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the conference. Last season, Fifita was inserted as the starter for the Wildcats in late September and carried them to one of their best seasons ever. He finished the season with 2,869 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions while completing 72.4% of his passes.

Fifita hasn't been the same in 2024 under new head coach Brett Brennan. Fifita is completing 61.5% of his passes and he has already thrown as many interceptions in 2024 as he did in 2023: 6 interceptions.

Fifita's interceptions have primarily ocurred when he throws downfield. On throws of 10 yards or more, Fifita is completing 38% of his passes and he has thrown 3 touchdowns to 5 interceptions.

BYU needs to put Fifita in situations where he is forced to throw the ball downfield. In those situations, Fifita locks in on his favorite target: Tetairoa McMillan. McMillan is one of the best wide receivers in the country. However, Fifita has a tendency to lock in on McMillan and miss other open receivers downfield. Those forced throws have turned into interceptions this season.

When Fifita throws 10 yards or more downfield, he targets McMillan 53% of the time. Expect BYU to have bracket coverage on McMillan throughout the game. And don't be surprised if a Fifita interception comes as a result of forcing a ball to McMillan.

What does BYU need to do to put Arizona in third & long situations? Stop the run. Arizona doesn't run often, but they are effective when they run the football, averaging 5.46 yards per carry. Stopping the run is the first step to getting stops.

2. Establish the Run Game

The Cougars are unbeaten despite a lack of consistent production from running backs: BYU doesn't have a running back with over 100 rushing yards this season. BYU has started five different running backs in five games this season.

Fortunately for BYU, they will have a healthy running back room for the first time this season. LJ Martin is BYU's best running back. He is the most efficient in terms yards per carry and he has home run ability. Martin has great vision and he's crafty in the way that he can make defenders miss to gain a few extra yards. Martin has not played since the first quarter of the SMU game.

With Martin and Sione Moa available, BYU needs to be able to establish the rushing attack.

Through five games - because of BYU's injuries at running back - Retzlaff has carried the BYU offense. BYU has 1,929 yards of total offense this year and Retzlaff has accounted for 1,362 (71%) of those yards. Retzlaff ranks 26th nationally in passing yards and he leads BYU in rushing.

That's not sustainable. BYU needs a running back to step in and become a consistent threat out of the backfield.

The advanced metrics highlight an important trend for Jake Retzlaff: he is dangerous in play action situations. 32% of Retzlaff's attempts have come from play action concepts. However, 47% of his yards and 67% of his touchdown throws have come from play action concepts. His yards per attempt increases from 6.5 yards in non-play action situations to 12.0 yards in play action concepts.

Establishing the run would open up the play action opportunities for BYU.

3. Get Off the Field on Third Down

BYU's defense needs to get off the field on third down. That was an area that plagued the BYU defense in 2023, and for the first time in 2024, was an issue against Baylor. Arizona has not been good on third down this season. The Wildcats rank 115th nationally in third down offense.

When the Cougars have a chance to get off the field, they need to capitalize.