Three Stats that Must Improve for BYU to Beat Baylor

A deep dive into the numbers that need to change for BYU to beat top-10 Baylor

No. 21 BYU hosts no. 9 Baylor on Saturday night on ESPN. Last year, Baylor took down BYU 38-24 in a lopsided showdown in Waco. The Bears, who would go on to win the Big 12, controlled the game in the trenches. Baylor ran for 303 yards that day compared to just 67 rushing yards for BYU.

On BYU's sideline, a healthy and more experienced roster is hoping for a different outcome this season. Baylor lost a lot of production from the 2021 championship team, except in the trenches. Of the five offensive lineman that started against BYU last season, four of them return in 2022. Three out of the four starting defensive lineman in last year's matchup will start for the Bears on Saturday.  

With so many familiar faces returning on both offensive and defensive lines, BYU has a chance to redeem its 2021 loss in Waco. Here are three statistics that must improve if BYU wants to beat Baylor. 

Note: All stats exclude garbage time

1. Stop the run on first down

Former BYU offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes spent 19 years as an offensive line coach before taking the offensive coordinator job at BYU. As a former offensive line coach, Grimes emphasizes the running game, especially on early downs. Last year against BYU, Baylor ran the football 73% of the time on first down. When the Bears ran on first down, they did it with great success averaging 6.3 yards per carry. First down success opened up play-action opportunities and made third downs manageable for Baylor's offense, all while exhausting a BYU defense that was on the field for over 35 minutes. 

Baylor's physical rushing attack took its toll as the game progressed. After BYU's defense tallied two consecutive stops to start the game, Baylor's offense scored on six of the next eight drives. 

Don't expect Grimes to change his play-calling philosophy on Saturday night. If BYU wants to stay in this game, it must stop the run on first down and keep Baylor's offense behind the chains. If not, it will be another long night for BYU's front seven. 

2. Establish the run on offense

It wasn't only BYU's defense that struggled in the trenches against Baylor last season. BYU's offensive line struggled to create running lanes for Tyler Allgeier. As a team, BYU averaged only 2.8 yards per carry against the Bears, a season low.

Baylor and BYU run the same synergistic offensive system that becomes nearly impossible to defend when things are working on the ground. Establishing the run will open up throwing lanes for Jaren Hall and keep Baylor's high-powered offense off the field. If BYU is going to beat Baylor, it must run for a lot more than 2.8 yards per carry.

3. Available yards

If you're unfamiliar with available yards as a college football statistic, it is worth committing to memory. Available yards is the percentage of available yards that were gained throughout a game. If Team A starts a drive on it's own 20 yard-line, for example, there are 80 available yards to gain. If Team A drives 40 yards before being stopped, Team A gained 50% of available yards on that drive. 

BYU's defense allowed 73.6% of available yards against Baylor last season, another season low. For context, the national average of available yards allowed was 46.6% in 2021. This is an area where BYU's defense generally struggled last season - BYU allowed 54.1% of available yards last season which ranked 101st out of 130 FBS teams.

If BYU is going to beat Baylor, it needs to improve in available yards allowed and get the ball back into the hands of BYU's offense. Fortunately for BYU fans, BYU's defense showed major signs of improvement in week one. BYU allowed only 23.6% of available yards against USF, that would have been the best mark of the 2021 season by a wide margin.

BYU-Baylor will bring an old football cliché to life: Saturday night's battle will be won in the trenches.