Updated Look at BYU's Path to the Big 12 Championship Game

How many games does BYU need to win to make the Big 12 title?

BYU linebackers Isaiah Glasker and Aisea Moa make a tackle against UCF / BYU Photo

After a 8-0 start including a 5-0 start in conference play, BYU is in the lead in the Big 12 standings. With the rivalry game on the horizon, we're taking a look at BYU's remaining four games and discussing how many games BYU will need to win to make the Big 12 championship game given the changes in the Big 12 over the weekend.

There are three scenarios we'll look at:

1. BYU goes 4-0
2. BYU goes 3-1
3. BYU goes 2-2

Any record worse than 2-2 would knock BYU out of title contention. Without further ado, let's dive in.

1. BYU Goes 4-0: Win And You're In

BYU is in sole possession of first place in the Big 12 standings. If BYU wins, they are in. A 12-0 record would guarantee BYU a spot in the Big 12 championship game. FPI gives BYU a 16% chance to finish the regular season unbeaten.

If BYU is unbeaten, it's not a matter of whether they would be in or not, it's a matter of who they would play. The Cougars would likely face Iowa State, Kansas State, or Colorado. Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Arizona State, and West Virginia also have a very slim chance to make the title game. Kansas State and Iowa State play each other in the final week of the regular season. That game could determine who faces BYU in Arlington if BYU goes 4-0.

BYU Goes 3-1: BYU Gets In

According to FPI, 3-1 over the final four games is the most likely outcome for BYU. FPI says there is a 39% chance BYU goes 11-1 and a 55% chance they finish 11-1 or better.

If BYU goes 3-1 and either Iowa State or Colorado suffers one more loss, BYU would be in the Big 12 championship regardless of tiebreaker rules. That's the most likely scenario according to FPI. The chances of both Colorado and Iowa State finishing unbeaten is just 3% according to FPI.

In the unlikely scenario that BYU goes 3-1 and both Colorado and Iowa State win out, their would be a three-way tie for first place. How would that tiebreaker be determined? Let's break it down.

These three teams did not play each other, therefore head-to-head tiebreaker rules would not apply. Here are the next tiebreaker rules in order:

B. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie.

The three common opponents between Iowa State, Colorado, and BYU are Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, UCF, and Utah.

BYU is currently 3-0 against common opponents. Iowa State is 2-0 and Colorado is 2-1. The only way there is a three-way tie is if Iowa State and Colorado win out. Therefore, Iowa State would be 5-0 against common opponents and Colorado would be 4-1.

If BYU's loss is to either Utah or Kansas, Iowa State would win the tiebreaker at this point and second place would come down to Colorado or BYU.

If BYU's loss were to come against Arizona State or Houston, BYU would advance in the tiebreaker along with Iowa State. Since both teams would be unbeaten against common opponents, the tiebreaker would come down to strength of schedule i.e. the " combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents." Iowa State would still win the tiebreaker in that scenario.

Therefore the race for second place would come down to BYU and Colorado. The two-team tiebreaker rules would apply. The two-way tiebreaker rules are similar to the three-team tiebreaker rules. BYU would win the tiebreaker over Colorado and get into the Big 12 championship game. BYU's win over Kansas State would likely win the tiebreaker for the Cougars (unless the Wildcats completely collapse down the stretch, which seems unlikely).

The date is 11/3/24 and BYU has some wiggle room to make the Big 12 championship game. A 3-1 record at this point will send the Cougars to Arlington.

BYU Goes 2-2: That Probably Isn't Good Enough To Get In

2-2 is the bare minimum for BYU to have a chance to play in the Big 12 title game. FPI says there is a 91% chance BYU will be 2-2 or better. In other words, it's very likely that BYU will at least be a factor in the Big 12 title race in November.

However, a 2-2 record probably wouldn't get BYU into the Big 12 title game. There are currently eight teams with two losses or less in the Big 12. There is a possibility of a five-team tiebreaker for first place. At that point, the tiebreaker would probably come down to strength of conference schedule, and BYU would probably not win in that scenario. The combined win % of BYU's conference opponents is currently the lowest between BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Colorado.