Updated Look at BYU's Path to the Big 12 Championship Game After Loss to Arizona State

Casey Lundquist | 1 Hour Ago

BYU linebacker Isaiah Glasker against Arizona State / BYU Photo

On Saturday afternoon, BYU lost to Arizona State 28-23. With the loss, the Cougars lost control of their own destiny to the Big 12 championship game. While BYU's game against Arizona State was winding down, however, Colorado lost to Kansas which greatly increased BYU's chances to make the Big 12 championship game.

At this point, BYU's path to the Big 12 championship game is more likely than you might think. We'll break it down in this article.

First and foremost, BYU has to beat Houston in the regular season finale. If BYU doesn't beat Houston, there is really no path to make the title game.

Second, BYU needs some help. BYU's fate lies in the hands of Iowa State and Arizona State. Those two teams have three games remaining, and BYU needs either Iowa State or Arizona State to lose one those three games to get back in the Big 12 title picture.

If Iowa State loses one of its final games, there would be a three-way tie at the top of the standings between BYU, Colorado, and Arizona State. Arizona State would win the tiebreak and second place would come down to BYU and Colorado. BYU would win that tiebreaker (BYU has a better record against common opponents), and BYU would go to Arlington.

If Iowa State beats Utah on Saturday night, there's still hope for the Cougars. BYU would need Kansas State to beat Iowa State in the regular season finale. If Kansas State beats Iowa State and BYU beats Houston, the Cougars would go to Arlington.

There is one more path to the Big 12 title game and it involves Arizona State.

Arizona State will face rival Arizona to close out the regular season. If Arizona State loses that game, BYU would be a win over Houston away from playing in the Big 12 title game.

What are the chances that those things could happen?

According to ESPN FPI, Iowa State has a 37% chance to win out.

Arizona State has a 70.6% chance to beat Arizona.

So what are the odds that Iowa State and Arizona State win their last three games? 26%.

In other words, assuming a BYU win over Houston, there is a 74% chance that BYU will make the Big 12 title game.

BYU lost control of its destiny by losing to Arizona State. The Cougars could regain control of their own destiny by Saturday evening if Utah takes down Iowa State.