Was BYU Football's Epic win over Kansas State Sustainable?

Joe Wheat | Sep 26, 2024

BYU punt returner Parker Kingston returns a punt for a touchdown against Kansas State / BYU Photo

Saturday was a wild win. Arguably one of the best in the history of Lavell Edwards Stadium. BYU beat a top-15 team in Kansas State by nearly 30 points. There are not enough adjectives to describe what that win could mean for this program. However, this win means little for BYU unless it translates into more wins. There was certainly a considerable amount of luck that turned that game from 6-0 to 31-6 in 7 minutes of game time. The odds of recreating that kind of explosion again this season (or ever for that matter) are remarkably slim.

Therefore it’s important to identify what about Saturday’s win can create a sustainable path to achieving BYU’s goals of bowl eligibility and beyond. Lets walk through a few things that are (and aren’t) events from Saturday that BYU can build off of the rest of this season.

Sustainable or Not Sustainable?

Sustainable: The pass protection of BYU’s offensive line

At this point, we can safely assume that BYU’s pass protection is solid, if not great. BYU ranks 22nd in combined pass blocking according to PFF and allowed just 9 combined pressures to Kansas State and SMU. Those defenses have forced a combined 127 pressures against everyone else they have played this season.

That kind of protection is a major help to Jake Retzlaff, who has a 71% adjusted completion percentage, 8.8 yards per attempt, 8 touchdowns, and 1 interception from a clean pocked this season. BYU’s offensive line has taken a massive step forward this season and we now have multiple data points against elite defensive lines to say that their level of performance is sustainable.

Not sustainable: The way the ball bounced

BYU safety Tommy Prassas returns a fumble for a touchdown against No. 13 Kansas State / BYU Photo

Let's be real. The final score looks a lot different if the ball bounces differently on the scoop-and-score and punt return touchdown. That is not to take away from the remarkable effort on both plays. Multiple national pundits called Kingston’s return the play of the year in college football. The number one reason being that plays like that just don’t happen very often. BYU hasn’t had a special teams and defensive touchdown in the same game since 1996. BYU can’t rely on that week in and week out to win games. Sometimes the ball bounces in a flukey way.

Sustainable: Turnovers forced from pressure

BYU defensive end Tyler Batty intercepts Avery Johnson in the Cougars dominant win over no. 13 Kansas State / BYU Photo

What isn’t flukey is turnovers generated from pressure. Perhaps the scoop-and-score and DJ Gidden’s first career fumble were strokes of luck. What wasn’t luck was Harrison Taggart and Jack Kelly being in position to stuff Giddens short of the line to gain on 3rd and 2. Maybe Avery Johnson throwing just his second and third interceptions on 159 career passes was a fluke, but the two defenders bearing down on him to force those errant throws was not.

There is a level of unpredictability to turnovers, but the way BYU’s defense played was anything but unpredictable (except for K-State's offense of course). Last season against Arkansas, BYU forced 3 turnovers and eked out a 38-31 win. This year, BYU forced 3 turnovers AND held Kansas State to only 3 field goals in a 38-9 drubbing. Yes, BYU got lucky to some extent on defense, but holding Kansas State to four straight drives without a first down during the most crucial point of the game was par for the course this season.

Not sustainable: 29-point margin of victory

Don’t get me wrong, BYU earned the win, but there was certainly a significant amount of luck and shots to the proverbial foot that contributed to the margin of victory being as lopsided as it was. That was BYU’s largest margin of victory over a P5 opponent since beating Texas 41-6 in 2014 and just the third time beating an FBS opponent by 18+ since the end of 2020. BYU doesn’t do this to teams very often, but when they do, it’s one of the great games in program history.

Sustainable: Sione Moa’s yards after contact

BYU running back Sione Moa against Kansas State / BYU Photo

Say all you want about BYU’s lucky bounces and short fields, none of that really matters when you have a running back that is going to run through another man's face. Sione Moa ran 5.1 yards per carry, 4.33 yards of which came after contact. Moa had 2 bruising 20-yard runs that setup touchdowns in this game, one of which came on 3rd and 10. A player like that is the difference between scoring touchdowns and field goals. The difference between sealing a game on a 4-minute drill and giving an opponent the ball back on a game winning two minute drill.

One of the main reasons BYU’s offense has struggled to get off the ground this season is their running back’s inability to see the gaps and pick up yards after contact, leading BYU to a disproportionate number of 3rd and longs. BYU’s outlook is very different if they have a consistent playmaker at running back.

Not sustainable: No redzone touchdowns against Power 4 opponents

Kansas State’s first two drives looked too easy. Too easy, that is, until they reached the red zone. BYU has allowed 7 red zone trips against their 2 Power 4 opponents this season and allowed 0 touchdowns. While incredible, that is not sustainable over BYU’s remaining 8 games. BYU can't allow opponents to hold the ball for nearly 14 minutes on 2 drives expect to keep opponents out of the end zone. Kansas State loves to run the ball and control the clock. This is what they do, but you can’t let another offense dictate the terms for 12 plays and 65+ yards and consistently expect to keep teams out of the endzone.

Sustainable: BYU’s pass efficiency defense

This isn’t supposed to happen at BYU, but it’s time to call BYU’s pass defense for what it is: good. BYU ranks 3rd nationally in pass efficiency defense this season and have yet to allow a touchdown this season. That piece probably isn’t sustainable, but this isn’t just against bad quarterbacks. Preston Stone, Avery Johnson, and Kevin Jennings have combined for 153.5 pass efficiency rating this season against everyone else this season. That number falls to 76.6 against BYU. We are now a third of the way through BYU’s season, and at a certain point, it stops being luck. Forcing quarterbacks into mistakes is simply what this BYU defense does.

Not sustainable: 0 touchdown drives of 50 yards or more

BYU wide receiver Darius Lassiter against Kansas State / BYU Photo

This might be a nitpick given that that BYU only had 459 yards available to gain, but BYU isn’t going to win a lot of football games with 0 sustained touchdown drives. BYU managed just 3 points on their 5 drives that started in their own territory. Only one of those drives was a 3-and-out while two were more about draining the clock than scoring touchdowns, but the point remains that nothing looks easy for this offense when drives start in their own territory. That needs to change before I am ready to call BYU a serious conference contender.

Sustainable: Jake Retzlaff’s clean play

This might be a hot take, but there was nothing about Jake Retzlaffs performance that wasn’t repeatable. Aaron Roderick did an excellent job scheming receivers open all night long while Retzlaff consistently put the ball on the money and out of harms way. Retzlaff didn’t throw for a million yards, but he was far from just a game manager. Retzlaff posted a pass efficiency rating above 160 and completed over 70% of his passes. Fans will point to his two sacks as examples of mistakes, but I saw them as examples of growth. Both sacks killed otherwise promising drives, but taking the sack is exactly what BYU fans begged Retzlaff to do against SMU after he threw 2 interceptions.

It sounds crazy, but Retzlaff is currently playing like one of the six best quarterbacks in the Big12. BYU is going to need that level of play to continue to exceed expectations this season.

Bonus sustainable: That level of effort

Parker Kingston returns punt for touchdown against no. 13 Kansas State / BYU Photo

Parker Kingston’s punt return touchdown has the potential the kind of season changing impact that Tyler Allgeier’s famous punch out did against Arizona State in 2021. Both plays started as game-changing disasters and resulted in game-sealing moments that BYU fans will remember for generations. Every ounce of effort that went into that play after the muffed kick is sustainable, from the awareness of Kingston to wait for the bounce rather than fall on the ball in panic to Isaiah Glasker running stride for stride with Kingston on all 140 yards Kingston covered. That is the kind of effort and love for this program that can make BYU’s 100th season a special one.