What Does BYU's Record Need to Be to Make the Big 12 Championship?

Casey Lundquist | Oct 27, 2024

BYU tight end Ray Paulo / BYU Photo

After a 8-0 start including a 5-0 start in conference play, BYU is firmly in the hunt for a Big 12 championship. With a bye week upcoming, we're taking a look at BYU's remaining four games and discussing how many games BYU will need to win to make the Big 12 championship game.

There are three scenarios we'll look at

1. BYU goes 4-0
2. BYU goes 3-1
3. BYU goes 2-2

Any record worse than 2-2 would knock BYU out of title contention. Without further ado, let's dive in.

We recorded a podcast episode on this same topic that did an even deeper dive than this article. You can listen to that episode here.

1. BYU Goes 4-0: Win And You're In

BYU is in sole possession of first place in the Big 12 standings. If BYU wins, they are in. A 12-0 record would guarantee BYU a spot in the Big 12 championship game. FPI gives BYU a 20% chance to finish the regular season unbeaten.

If BYU is unbeaten, it's not a matter of if they would be in, it's a matter of who they would play. The Cougars would either face Iowa State (who also controls its destiny), Kansas State, or Colorado. Kansas State and Iowa State play each other in the final week of the regular season. That game could be a play-in game for the Big 12 championship.

BYU Goes 3-1: You Should Get You In

According to FPI, 3-1 over the final four games is the most likely outcome for BYU. FPI says there is a 41% chance BYU goes 11-1 and a 61% chance they finish 11-1 or better.

If BYU goes 3-1, they might need tiebreaker rules to determine whether they are in or not. In the podcast, we broke down the tiebreaker rules step by step. Here's the cliff notes version: the win over Kansas State gives BYU a leg up in most tiebreaker scenarios.

If there is a four-way tie between BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, and Kansas State, BYU and Kansas State would likely rematch in the Big 12 title game.

If there is a two-way tie between BYU and Colorado, BYU would win thanks to its win over Kansas State.

If BYU, Iowa State, and Colorado are tied, BYU would get in thanks to...you guessed: the win over Kansas State.

If BYU is 3-1 over the last four, they are more than likely in.

2-2 Probably Isn't Good Enough Anymore

2-2 is the bare minimum for BYU to have a chance to play in the Big 12 title game. FPI says there is a 91% chance BYU will be 2-2 or better. In other words, it's very likely that BYU will at least be a factor in the Big 12 title race in November.

If BYU loses two games in November, they would need some help to get into the Big 12 championship game. Of the three other teams at the top of the standings, BYU would need at least two of them to lose a game they are not expected to lose at this point.

Based on how this race is trending, that seems unlikely. For BYU to really feel good about their chances to get in, they need to be 3-1 or better. At 2-2, BYU would need things to fall in place.