What the Analytics are Saying About BYU vs Arkansas

What the numbers are saying about BYU vs Arkansas

Casey Lundquist | Oct 12, 2022

After a tough loss to Notre Dame, BYU travels back home to host Arkansas. It's a rare opportunity for BYU to host a team from the SEC, and it's also an opportunity for BYU to turn around its season after suffering two losses in its last four games. Arkansas is looking for a bounce-back win in its own right. The Razorbacks were ranked in the top 10 before suffering three consecutive losses to Texas A&M, Alabama, and Mississippi State. Today, we preview BYU-Arkansas from an analytical perspective.

SP+ Prediction

SP+ expects a close game between BYU and Arkansas. SP+ gives Arkansas a 52% chance to win with an expected final score of 31-30 in favor of the Razorbacks. SP+ is also in favor of the over; the over/under is currently set at 59.5.

ESPN FPI Prediction

ESPN FPI is more bullish on the Cougars than SP+. FPI gives BYU a 64% chance to beat Arkansas.

Vegas Betting Line

As of this writing, Arkansas is a 1.5-point favorite over BYU. The betting lines opened with the Cougars favored by 2 points, so the line has moved 3.5 points towards Arkansas.

BYU's Offense vs Arkansas' Defense

According to Football Outsiders, BYU's offense ranks 17th in efficiency despite a few slow starts in the last several games. Arkansas' defense ranks 79th in the country in defensive efficiency, primarily due to its passing defense. The Razorbacks are allowing 307 passing yards per game which ranks 127 out of 131 FBS teams.

Assuming Jaren Hall is healthy, BYU should be able to move the ball through the air on Saturday.

BYU's Defense vs Arkansas' Offense

Arkansas' offense ranks 19th in offensive efficiency and BYU's defense ranks 51st in defensive efficiency. The Razorbacks will try to attack BYU's defense on the ground. Arkansas averages 234 yards per game on the ground which is good for 11th in the country.

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Published Oct 12, 2022

CASEY LUNDQUIST

Casey Lundquist is the publisher and lead editor of Cougs Daily. He has covered BYU athletics for the last four years. During that time, he has published over 2,000 stories that have reached more than three million people.