Where BYU Fits Into the Big 12 Title Race Ahead of Week Nine

Casey Lundquist | Oct 25, 2024

Oct 18, 2024; Provo, Utah, USA; Brigham Young Cougars defensive end Tyler Batty (92) encourages fans to cheer against the Oklahoma State Cowboys during the fourth quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

After a 7-0 start including a 4-0 start in conference play, BYU is firmly in the hunt for a Big 12 championship. With an upcoming game at UCF, the Cougars have a chance to take sole possession of first place since Iowa State is idle this week. Today, we're checking in on the Big 12 title race and where BYU fits in.

Historically, two-loss teams can make the Big 12 championship game. In other words, every team with two losses or less is technically still in the Big 12 title race. 9/16 Big 12 teams have two losses or less, so we'll break up the Big 12 teams into three tiers: the unbeatens, the one-loss teams, and the two-loss teams. Here are the Big 12 standings ahead of week nine.

Big 12 Conference Standings / si.com

BYU and Iowa State: Win And You're In

BYU and Iowa State are currently tied for first place in the Big 12. Both the Cougars and the Cyclones are 4-0 in conference play and 7-0 overall. Thanks to their unblemished records season-to-date, these two teams control their destiny to the Big 12 championship. If they win out, it will be a BYU-Iowa State showdown in Arlington.

However, perfection is incredibly difficult in college football. Since these two teams have been flawless through seven games, they probably don't have to be perfect over the final five games to make the Big 12 championship game.

At 11-1 overall and 8-1 in Big 12 play, BYU would probably get in. The same can be said for Iowa State (unless their loss is to Kansas State, then tiebreaker rules could determine their destiny).

For the Cougars, their ability to win road games will be tested over the next four games. Three of the next four BYU games will be on the road. BYU has only won one Big 12 road game ever: at Baylor. A 2-1 record over those last three road games would probably be enough to get BYU into the Big 12 championship. However, winning out is the only way BYU can completely maintain control of its destiny. With a win over UCF, BYU would take sole possession of first place in the conference standings.

Iowa State has to travel to Utah to take on the Utes before hosting Kansas State in the regular season finale. If Utah can get back on track, that could be a trap game for the Cyclones. Iowa State also hosts Texas Tech and Cincinnati in November.

The One-Loss Teams Are Split Between Contenders and Pretenders

There are four one-loss teams in the Big 12 standings: Kansas State, Colorado, Texas Tech, and Cincinnati. They will start to eliminate each other over the next few weeks - a lot of them play each other in the back half. Within this group, Kansas State and Colorado feel like legitimate threats to make the Big 12 championship, while Texas Tech and Cincinnati feel more like pretenders than contenders.

The Pretenders

Cincinnati plays at Colorado this weekend. The loser of that game will probably be eliminated from Big 12 title contention. The Bearcats have a brutal stretch to close the regular season. They have to travel to Kansas State and Iowa State later this year. It's challenging to foresee a scenario where Cincinnati is playing in Arlington on December 7th (the Big 12 title game).

Texas Tech had masterfully escaped defeat through the first three games of conference play. The run came to a close last week when they were blasted by Baylor at home. The Red Raiders' good fortune will officially come to an end sooner than later and they will be eliminated from title contention. They have road games at TCU, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State remaining. They host West Virginia and Colorado as well.

The Contenders

Kansas State hosts rival Kansas this weekend. Anything can happen in rivalry games, although it's hard to see a path to victory for the Jayhawks in this game. Kansas State's schedule sets up nicely over the last five games of the season: vs Kansas, at Houston, vs Arizona State, vs Cincinnati, at Iowa State. It seems very possible that Kansas State could be 10-1 when they travel to Ames to take on Iowa State in the regular season finale. That game could be a Big 12 championship play-in game.

Colorado's schedule suddenly looks a lot more favorable than it did in the preseason: vs Cincinnati, at Texas Tech, vs Utah, at Kansas, vs Oklahoma State. Colorado probably needs to win out since they won't have a tiebreaker over Kansas State.

The Two-Loss Teams Require Perfection and Good Fortune

Three teams have two losses and have not (technically) been eliminated from Big 12 title contention: West Virginia, Arizona State, and TCU. These teams require both perfection and good fortune down the final stretch to make the Big 12 title game.

While these teams can't technically be written off yet, SP+ says none of these teams have better than a 2% chance to win the Big 12. They are long shots at best.