Where BYU Can Move Up in the AP Poll: Week Six

A look at the teams that surround BYU in the AP poll

For the fourth consecutive week, BYU is ranked in both national polls. They are currently ranked #10 in the AP poll following a 5-0 start that includes victories over two ranked teams. The Cougars are favored over rival Boise State this weekend. A BYU win over Boise State is expected by national voters. Therefore, BYU will need some help to move up in the polls. That's right, it's time for another edition of AP poll science.

What is AP poll science? It is a look at the surrounding teams in the AP poll and who they play this week. We identify the teams that are most vulnerable. It gives you, the fan, a list of games to watch or monitor this weekend that could impact BYU's ranking.

There are multiple games that will impact BYU's standing in the AP poll this weekend.

Before we dive in, let's address the elephant in the room. All of this will go away if BYU doesn't take care of business against Boise State. In the words of Al Davis, "Just win, baby."

AP Poll Science: Week Four

#3 Iowa: Iowa takes on #4 Penn State this weekend. FPI gives the Hawkeyes a 59% chance to win. This game probably won't impact BYU's ranking in the short term. If Iowa loses, they probably maintain a top-10 ranking. Same goes for Penn State.

In the long term, this could impact BYU. Iowa has a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way if it beats Penn State. If Iowa wins, they could finish the regular season undefeated and BYU will never have the chance to surpass them in the polls.

The opposite is true for Penn State - they still have #7 Ohio State, #9 Michigan, and #11 Michigan State on the schedule. If Penn State wins, they could still lose multiple times and drop in the polls.

#4 Penn State: See #3 Iowa.

#5 Cincinnati: Cincinnati hosts temple this weekend. They have a 98% chance to win according to ESPN FPI.

#6 Oklahoma: Oklahoma takes on arch-rival Texas in the Red River Showdown. Oklahoma has a 57% chance to win according to ESPN FPI.

#7 Ohio State: Ohio State takes on Maryland this Saturday. This probably won't be a close game - the Buckeyes are favored by three touchdowns.

#8 Oregon: Oregon has a bye this weekend.

#9 Michigan: Michigan travels to Nebraska this weekend. Nebraska has improved since it lost at Illinois in the opener.  FPI gives Michigan a 63% chance to win.

#10 BYU: BYU has to beat Boise State, it's that simple.

BYU is also in danger of being leapfrogged by a teams that win big games on Saturday.

#11 Michigan State: Michigan State travels to Rutgers this weekend. Rutgers, who is coming off a blowout loss against Ohio State, has a 35% chance to pull off the upset according to ESPN FPI.

#12 Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State has a bye this weekend.

#13 Arkansas: Arkansas travels to #17 Ole Miss this weekend. They only have a 33% chance to win according to FPI.

#14 Notre Dame: Notre Dame travels to Virginia Tech on Saturday. This game is a tossup according to oddsmakers.

#15 Coastal Carolina: Even with a win, Coastal Carolina won't surpass BYU in the rankings.

#16 Kentucky: If Kentucky continues to win, they will surpass BYU in the rankings. They take on LSU this weekend - they have a 52% chance to win according to FPI.

Teams on Upset Alert

A new feature to AP poll science, we rank the three most vulnerable teams ranked ahead of BYU in the polls. Over the last two weeks, we successfully alerted Baylor's upset over Iowa State, NC State's upset over Clemson, and Mississippi State's upset over Texas A&M.

Here are three teams on upset alert this weekend.

1. #14 Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech

Notre Dame has struggled to score at times this season, and they take on a Virginia Tech defense that is only allowing 15 points per game. I expect this to be a close, low-scoring game.

2. #16 Kentucky vs LSU

Kentucky is coming off a thrilling victory over Florida, and LSU is coming off a disappointing loss against Auburn. I expect the Tigers to be motivated on Saturday.

3. #11 Michigan State @ Rutgers

Rutgers gave Michigan a close game on the road a few weeks ago. This game could be closer than expected.

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