Why Not BYU in a Wide Open Big 12 Title Race?

Casey Lundquist | Sep 29, 2024

BYU defensive backs Tanner Wall and Mory Bamba / BYU Photo

Coming into the 2024 season, the oddsmakers set the over/under for BYU's win total at 4.5. Fast forward to today and BYU is the only 5-0 team in the Big 12. BYU has overcome the odds in every sense of the word so far this season. In this article, we're going to look ahead at what the 2024 season could look like if the Cougars continue to exceed expectations. It's time to talk about BYU's ceiling.

After week five, the Big 12 is wide open. Utah lost to Arizona. Oklahoma State was boat raced by Kansas State and UCF got crushed by Colorado. Kansas is winless in conference play.

So why not BYU in a wide open Big 12 title race?

The Big 12 is Full of Flawed Teams

Sure, BYU has its flaws. The offense can go cold at times and the defense showed signs of weakness for the first time this season against Baylor. But when you look around the league, there isn't a flawless team in the conference.

Oklahoma State has defensive issues and their offense isn't nearly as potent as it was a year ago.

Arizona had a nice win at Utah, but they got blown out by Kansas State, were in a competitive game against NAU, and allowed 39 points to a bad New Mexico team.

Iowa State will need to find more production from its offense if it hopes to win the Big 12.

Kansas State looks like one of the best teams in the conference despite their loss at BYU, but BYU would have a head-to-head tiebreaker in their favor.

Utah is a great team with Cam Rising and a mediocre team without him. Until Rising is actually on the field, you can't expect Utah to be consistent week in and week out.

Colorado is 2-0 in conference play, but the Buffaloes needed a miraculous comeback to beat the same Baylor team at home that BYU just beat on the road.

Texas Tech is 2-0 in conference play, but the Red Raiders nearly lost to Abilene Christian in week one. They also got blown out by Washington State. Texas Tech is flawed and those flaws will manifest themselves sooner rather than later.

BYU's Wins Have Aged Very Well

BYU's wins over Kansas State and SMU have aged very well.

In the week leading up to the BYU game, Kansas State dominated a top-20 Arizona team. In the week after the Kansas State-BYU game, the Wildcats dominated Oklahoma State in a top-25 matchup. Turns out, Kansas State is really good and BYU was very fortunate to get them at home. Kansas State will remain in the top 25 for at least the next few weeks. That was a very good win for BYU.

SMU has played extremely well since losing to BYU. Like Kansas State, the Mustangs are 4-1 and their only loss is to BYU. Remember, BYU held SMU's offense to just 15 points. In the weeks after the BYU game, SMU has scored 66 points and 42 points against TCU and Florida State, respectively.

BYU beat two really good teams in September. BYU ranks second nationally in terms of strength of record behind only Alabama. BYU's resume is very good right now.

The Schedule Lines Up

Make no mistake, BYU still has a very challenging schedule ahead. It's not as daunting, however, as it first appeared to be.

BYU gets Arizona at home. That's a big deal.

Oklahoma State has to travel to Provo on a short week for a night game.

UCF has trailed by 20 points or more in every conference game this season, they just pulled off a comeback to win at TCU in week three.

Utah is beatable if Cam Rising isn't playing, and it feels impossible to count on Rising being in the lineup consistently.

Kansas has not been good this season with a 1-4 record.

Arizona State is better than anticipated, but they are as beatable as anyone else in the conference.

Houston, the regular season finale, is the worst team in the conference by a wide margin.

The Conference Standings

With a 5-0 record, BYU sits at the top of the conference standings. BYU is in as good of a position as any team to make a run at the Big 12 title. BYU has the third-best chances to win the conference according to FPI

FPI Conference Title Odds

1. Iowa State - 19.6%
2. Colorado - 15.2%
3. BYU - 15.1%
4. Kansas State - 13.6%
5. Arizona - 7.0%
6. UCF - 6.5%
7. TCU - 5.6%
8. Texas Tech - 5.1%
9. Utah - 4.9%
10. West Virginia - 3.1%

Team	Conference Record	Overall Record
1. BYU	2-0	5-0
2. Colorado	2-0	4-1
3. Texas Tech	2-0	4-1
4. Iowa State	1-0	4-0
5. Arizona	1-0	3-1
6. West Virginia	1-0	2-2
7. Kansas State	1-1	4-1
8. Utah	1-1	4-1
9. TCU	1-1	3-2
10. UCF	1-1	3-1
11. Cincinnati	1-1	3-2
12. Arizona State	0-1	3-1
13. Oklahoma State	0-2	3-2
14. Baylor	0-2	2-3
15. Houston	0-2	1-4
16. Kansas	0-2	1-4

BYU is flawed

So is everyone else

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