Big 12 Reportedly 'Seriously Discussing BYU'; What Are the Next Steps?

Instead of an introduction, let's start with this 10 second clip of Michael Scott. Big 12 expansion has been rumored multiple times over the last ten years.

Instead of an introduction, let's start with this 10 second clip of Michael Scott. 

Big 12 expansion has been rumored multiple times over the last ten years. Even the Big 12 itself announced its intentions to explore expansion in 2016 only to stay at 10 members. This time is different, it's really happening - the Big 12 needs to expand.

Yesterday, the PAC-12 conference decided against expansion, leaving a path to survival for the Big 12 conference. According to a report from The Athletic, "there’s one school they’re already seriously discussing: BYU."

If the Big 12 wants BYU as the report from The Athletic suggests, there would be some hurdles that BYU would have to clear prior to joining the Big 12. What are those hurdles and the next steps?

1. Does BYU want the Big 12?

This might sound like a throwback to 2010, but this round of realignment is different than the last round.

If the year was 2016, BYU would accept a Big 12 invite straight away. However, the year is 2021 and the Big 12 is not as attractive as it was in 2016. Accepting an invitation to an eroded Big 12 is not a slam dunk for BYU who has arrived at the scheduling prime of independence. There would undoubtedly be pros to joining the Big 12 like competing for a conference championship. There would also be cons for BYU like the geographic fit and losing its independence.

In the past, we've written about five conditions that would need to be met before BYU would accept a Big 12 invitation. Outside of the obvious ones like no Sunday play,  they are:

1. The abandoned eight schools must remain in the Big 12
2. The money must be better in the Big 12
3. The Big 12 must improve BYU's postseason arrangements
4. BYU's path to the College Football Playoff must be better in the Big 12
5. The Big 12 must improve BYU's national relevance

With all the uncertainty surrounding the future of college football, independence provides BYU with very valuable flexibility that it might need down the road. There is a lot of value in being an independent school that sets its own rules. 

That brings us to the next hurdle.

2. Ride the wave of backlash

Again, BYU is unique and has its quirks. When the Big 12 considered expansion in 2016, LGBTQ+ advocacy groups publicly campaigned against BYU and its honor code. Since BYU's name is already linked to Big 12 expansion, I would expect similar social backlash once again.

This time, however, Big 12 presidents are desperate. Would they be willing to ride the wave of social backlash and invite BYU? Conference realignment comes down to money. If BYU can make the Big 12 more money, the answer is probably yes.

3. Who would come with BYU?

This paragraph from The Athletic's report was very interesting:

Those numbers suggest a version of the Big 12 that included BYU would bring in more money for every school in the league than one that didn’t. “The last time we went through an exercise, that’s the one school the consultants were saying added value to our current TV contracts,” one Big 12 AD told The Athletic. Plus, as a football independent, BYU doesn’t have to worry about giving notice or paying a massive exit fee the way a current American Athletic Conference or Mountain West member would. - Max Olson and Andy Staples

If BYU was the only school that "added value" to the TV contracts in 2016, who else could join BYU in the Big 12?

The schools at the top of the list will likely be Boise State, Cincinnati, Houston, or UCF.

Or perhaps the Big 12 would return to 12 members? Or even expand to 14? On one hand, expanding to 10 feels like the most logical choice if other schools would add monetary dead weight to the Big 12. On the other hand, the Big 12 could view this expansion as an investment in school's with a large alumni base like UCF.

4. Ironing out the details of a BYU membership

Would the Big 12 want to add BYU as a full-fledged member? Or would the invitation be football only?

If the Big 12 wanted BYU as a full-time member, they would have to avoid Sunday play in basketball and other olympic sports. Again, if the money makes sense, the Big 12 will be much more flexible with BYU.

If the Big 12 wants to avoid the scheduling and travel headaches for non-football sports, a football-only membership could make the most sense.

5. The Big 12 presidents would vote on expansion candidates

If all the hurdles are cleared, the Big 12 presidents would vote whether to extend an invitation to BYU (and the other schools) or not. BYU would need 75% of the vote to receive a Big 12 invitation.

One of the most interesting tidbits from The Athletic's report about BYU and the Big 12 was this one:

“The people who didn’t want BYU before,” the source said, “are leaving the conference.”

This quote insinuates that it was Texas and Oklahoma that blocked BYU in the past. If BYU's name is on the ballot this time around, it feels like the remaining eight schools would let BYU in.

That, however, brings us back to the very beginning. Does BYU really want the Big 12? Time will tell. This time around, the ball might be in BYU's court.

Either way, the next few weeks will provide answers. The Big 12 four-person expansion subcommittee will meet on Friday, with plans to meet again next week.

Have confirmed from multiple sources there is a four-person subcommittee in the Big 12 meeting today to explore expansion.

— Heather Dinich (@CFBHeather) August 27, 2021