BYU Basketball: The Odds of a Deep Tournament Run

What are the chances that BYU can advance to the Sweet 16 and beyond?

For the first time since 2015, the BYU men's basketball will be dancing this March. Their seed and opponent for the 2021 NCAA Tournament were announced on Sunday - the Cougars were given a #6 seed in the tournament, and they will face the winner of Michigan State and UCLA in the first round. Michigan and UCLA face off on Thursday in the 'First Four'. Below is a look at where BYU fits in the bracket:

The Cougars will play their first game on Saturday. Should they win on Saturday, they will face the winner of Texas and Abilene Christian on Monday. If they advance to the round of 32, it would be the first time the Cougars have advanced to the round of 32 since 2011 when Jimmer Fredette led BYU to the Sweet 16. Today, let's break down the odds of a deep NCAA tournament run for BYU.

Opponent

First, let's understand which opponent BYU is most likely to face on Saturday. Below are win probabilities from FiveThirtyEight, ESPN BPI, and Ken Pomeroy for UCLA-Michigan State:

Team	FiveThirtyEight	ESPN BPI	KenPom
UCLA (% chance to advance to round of 64)	46%	59%	55%
Michigan State (% chance to advance to round of 64)	54%	41%	45%

Most national media pundits expect Michigan State to advance to the round of 64. The computers believe Michigan State-UCLA is a tossup. Based on the momentum Michigan State has heading into the tournament, I expect BYU to face Michigan State on Saturday night.

According to Action Network, BYU has a 61.7% chance to beat Michigan State, and a 63.6% chance to beat UCLA.

NCAA Tournament Chances

So what are the odds of a deep NCAA tournament run? We'll use FiveThirtyEight, Team Rankings, and ESPN BPI to break downs the odds of BYU advancing to the Sweet 16 and beyond:

Round	FiveThirtyEight	ESPN BPI	TeamRankings
Advance to Round of 32	54%	64%	58%
Advance to Sweet 16	26%	31%	22%
Advance to Elite Eight	11%	12%	8%
Advance to Final Four	5%	4%	3%
Advance to Championship	1%	0.9%	0.8%
Win Championship	0.5%	0.2%	0.2%

By Thursday night, BYU will know whether they are facing Michigan State or UCLA. BYU fans can watch Michigan State and UCLA tip off on Thursday night at 7:57 MST on TBS.

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