BYU Football: What is the Likelihood that Teams Surrounding BYU in the Polls Win Out?

Which teams are most likely to lose that surround BYU in the polls?

BYU football is still ranked #8 in both the AP poll and the Coaches poll. According to ESPN FPI, the Cougars have an 89% chance to finish the season undefeated. With only two games remaining on the schedule, BYU will need help from other teams to make substantial moves in the polls. Today, let's look at which teams are most likely to lose that surround BYU in the polls.

Win out percentages come from ESPN's college football power index.

#1 Alabama

Win out %: 62.3%

Definition: Percentage of simulations in which team won all remaining scheduled games. 

Most difficult game remaining: SEC championship game

Alabama will likely face Florida in the SEC championship game.

#2 Notre Dame

Win out %: 18.7%

Most difficult game remaining: ACC championship game

Notre Dame will likely face Clemson once again in the ACC championship game - the Tigers will have Trevor Lawrence back for that game barring an injury. It's worth noting that the Fighting Irish still have to travel to North Carolina in late November. ESPN FPI gives the Fighting Irish a 70% chance to win that game.

#3 Ohio State

Win out %: 46.2%

Most difficult game remaining: Big Ten championship game

Wisconsin looks like the team that will face Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. As far as the regular season goes, the Buckeyes have at least a 90% chance to win all of their remaining games according to ESPN FPI. If the Buckeyes beat Indiana next weekend then they will likely coast to an undefeated regular season.

#4 Clemson

Win out %: 52.4%

Most difficult game remaining: ACC championship game

Barring a string of major upsets, Clemson will seek revenge against Notre Dame in the ACC championship game.

#5 Texas A&M

Win out %: 18.8%

Most difficult game remaining: Auburn

Texas A&M faces a difficult three game stretch to finish the season against LSU, Auburn, and Tennessee. 

#6 Florida

Win out %: 15.6%

Most difficult game remaining: SEC championship game

Florida has a 62% chance to win the rest of their regular season games. If they get through those games unscathed, they will face Alabama (not technically a lock, but most likely) in the SEC championship game.

#7 Cincinnati

Win out %: 23.6%

Most difficult game remaining: UCF

Cincinnati has three difficult games remaining: UCF (the Bearcats are underdogs according to ESPN FPI), #25 Tulsa, and the AAC championship game.

#9 Indiana

Win out %: 0.1%

Most difficult game remaining: Ohio State

If Indiana beats Ohio State, the Hoosiers could jump into the top five. They would still have to beat Wisconsin on the road to remain undefeated. 

#10 Wisconsin

Win out %: 32.8%

Most difficult game remaining: Iowa & Big Ten Championship

Wisconsin still has to take on #19 Northwestern, #9 Indiana, Iowa, and Ohio State (likely) in the Big Ten championship game.

#11 Oregon

Win out %: 40.9%

Most difficult game remaining: California & PAC-12 championship

According to ESPN FPI, the Ducks have a 57% chance to finish the regular season undefeated. The Ducks most difficult game will likely come in the PAC-12 championship game. Would a 7-0 Oregon team qualify for the College Football Playoff? 

#12 Miami

Win out %: 18.3%

Most difficult game remaining: Wake Forest & North Carolina

Miami has somehow managed to win three close games over the last three weeks. ESPN FPI thinks the Hurricanes' games against Wake Forest and North Carolina are tossups.