ESPN FPI Predicts the 2021 BYU Football Schedule
On Thursday, ESPN's FPI released its individual game probabilities for the 2021 college football season. BYU was favored in all but two games. Below are the SP+ predictions for BYU's 2021 schedule, along with our take on the predictions.
vs Arizona - Saturday Sep. 4 (Las Vegas)
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 84%
BYU will take on Arizona in the new Allegiant Stadium, home of the Las Vegas Raiders. Arizona is coming off an 0-5 season after which they fired head coach Kevin Sumlin. This will be the coaching debut for new Arizona coach Jedd Fisch.
2020 Record: 0-5
After nearly beating USC in their opener, Arizona stumbled to the finish line last season. Their season ended with a 70-7 blowout loss against rival Arizona State and the eventual firing of head coach Kevin Sumlin. That nightmare ending to the 2020 season puts Arizona towards the bottom of the SP+ college football rankings to start the 2021 season.
An 84% win probability for BYU feels about right given the recent trajectory of both programs, I would have put it closer to 75% win probability. That game is very important for the Cougars who face Utah and Arizona State after their opener against Arizona.
vs Utah - Saturday Sep. 11
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 53%
BYU hosts rival Utah at home where they will have another chance to end the streak.
2020 Record: 3-2
Utah returns a lot of production in 2021. After losing their first two games of the 2020 season, the Utes turned things around and finished 3-2. Their defense, which has become the staple under Kyle Whittingham, should be very good in 2021. Their offense could also pose a threat through the air with transfer quarterback Charlie Brewer.
A 53% win probability is surprisingly high in this author's opinion. S+P+ gave BYU closer to a 30% chance to win, and that felt like the right number to me. However, one or two plays have decided these games in the past.
vs Arizona State - Saturday Sep. 18
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 55%
BYU will face a third PAC-12 South opponent in as many weeks when they host Arizona State on September 18th.
2020 Record: 2-2
ESPN FPI ranks Utah and Arizona State in the same category next season. It's difficult to draw too many conclusions about a team that only played four games last season. Like Utah, Arizona State returns a lot of production in 2021. ESPN FPI BYU-Arizona State will be a competitive game next season.
vs USF - Saturday Sep. 25
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 88%
BYU will play their third-straight home game against USF on September 25th.
2020 Record: 1-8
No surprises here, USF went 1-8 in 2020. ESPN FPI believes USF will be bad again this season. The Cougars can avenge their bad loss at USF in 2019.
@ Utah State - Friday Oct. 1
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 88%
BYU will travel to Utah State to take on head coach Blake Anderson for the first time.
2020 Record: 1-5
The Aggies went 1-5 in 2020. The eye test of the 2020 Aggies was even worse than their record suggests - Utah State was downright awful last season. New head coach Blake Anderson will try to turn things around in Logan. ESPN FPI predicts the Aggies will be one of the worst FBS teams in college football.
Boise State - Saturday Oct. 9
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 79%
BYU will try to win their third-straight game against Boise State next season. Boise State will also feature a new head coach - former head coach Bryan Harsin was hired by Auburn. Andy Avalos is the new head coach at Boise State.
2020 Record: 5-2
Boise State ranks in the bottom third of college football in terms of returning production. In the past, returning production has been irrelevant for Boise State - they have found a way to win a lot of games every season. Can new head coach Andy Avalos continue the winning tradition in Boise?
SP+ believes this game will be a tossup giving BYU a win probability of 47%. ESPN FPI is bullish on the Cougars giving them a 79% win probability. I would put my prediction somewhere in between those two numbers.
@ Baylor - Saturday Oct. 16
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 41%
BYU will travel to Baylor for their first of three-straight P5 games late in the season. BYU fans have wanted more meaningful games late in the season - that is exactly what the 2021 schedule will provide. The Cougars will face former BYU OC Jeff Grimes and former BYU OL coach Eric Mateos.
2020 Record: 2-7
Despite losing quarterback Charlie Brewer and going 2-7 last season, ESPN FPI believes Baylor has the talent to rebound this year. This stretch of the schedule (Boise State, Baylor, Washington State, and Virginia) will probably define the way we talk about the 2021 season for years to come.
@ Washington State - Saturday Oct. 23
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 65%
BYU will travel to Pullman to take on Washington State.
2020 Record: 1-3
Washington State returns a lot of production from a 2020 season where they went 1-3. Of note, Washington State picked up a quarterback transfer out of Tennessee in Jarett Guarantano. BYU beat Guarantano in an overtime thriller in 2019 when he played for Tennessee.
ESPN FPI gives BYU a 65% chance to win - I tend to agree.
Virginia - Saturday Oct. 30
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 63%
Bronco Mendenhall returns to Lavell Edwards Stadium to take on his former team.
2020 Record: 5-5
ESPN FPI gives BYU the slight edge in October. Given the talent and emotions on both sides, I think this game could go either way.
vs Idaho State - Saturday Nov. 6
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 99%
The Cougars will be heavy favorites against Idaho State in November.
@ Georgia Southern - Saturday Nov. 20
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 68%
BYU takes on Georgia Southern for the first time in program history.
2020 Record: 8-5
Like BYU, Georgia Southern will be very inexperienced in 2021. However, they have been making progress as a program over the last few years. This could be a trap game on BYU's schedule.
@ USC - Saturday Nov. 27
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 31%
A regular season finale in the Coliseum? Yes, you read that right. BYU will travel to USC to take on the Trojans.
2020 Record: 5-1
PAC-12 South champions USC returns less production in 2021 than most of their PAC-12 counterparts. Regardless, USC will probably be the most talented team BYU faces next season. FPI believes USC is the best team on BYU's 2021 schedule. It's very difficult to win at the Coliseum - I also have this game penciled as BYU's most difficult in 2021.
If you have been keeping track, that is six likely wins (65% or above), one likely loss (less than 35%), and five tossups with an expected record of 7-5.
It is important to remember that ESPN FPI rankings will change dramatically after a few weeks of games.
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