How BYU Football Stacks Up in ESPN's First 2021 College Football Power Index

ESPN FPI expects BYU to take a step back in 2021.

Every college football season, ESPN updates a College Football Power Index that ranks teams in various categories. On Tuesday morning, ESPN released its first FPI rankings - BYU came in at #63. You can check out ESPN's complete projections for BYU down below.

Note: The definitions of these metrics come from ESPN's CFB Power Index page.

FPI

Definition: Expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field. This is the overall ranking that ESPN uses to rank FBS teams from 1 to 130 in the preseason.

BYU's initial FPI is 2.9, meaning BYU would beat an average opponent by three points on a neutral field. 2.9 puts BYU right in the middle of the rest of college football - ESPN FPI ranks BYU at #63.

According to ESPN's Seth Walder, BYU is expected to take a step back this season. "For BYU, the outlook is worse," Walder said. "But that's logical. Zach Wilson will likely be the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL draft, and for a team to lose such a talent and not recruit like Alabama or Ohio State, it won't be able to rebound as quickly. BYU ranks 63rd in FPI, nestled in between UCLA and Buffalo."

Projected Win/Loss Record

Definition: Projected overall W-L accounting for results to date and FPI-based projections.

BYU: 7.3-4.7. BYU is expected to go 7-5 according to ESPN FPI's latest projections. Those numbers will change throughout the season, and they can be very unreliable before teams have played games.For example, ESPN FPI gave BYU a 28% chance to beat Navy on Labor Day last year.

Win Out %

Definition: Percentage of simulations in which team won all remaining scheduled games.

BYU: 0.1%. In the words of Lloyd Christmas, "So you're telling me there's a chance?" BYU essentially has a 0% chance to go undefeated against their 2021 schedule. 

6 Wins %

Definition: Percentage of simulations in which team won at least six games.

BYU: 88.2%. According to ESPN FPI, BYU has an 88% chance to go to a bowl game against their current schedule.

Playoff %

Definition: Chances of making the CFB Playoff according to the playoff predictor.

BYU: 0%. Not surprising, but ESPN FPI gives BYU a 0% chance to make the playoff given BYU's 0.1% chance to go undefeated. Last year, FPI put BYU's chances to make the College Football Playoff as high as 25%.

Make National Championship %

Definition: Chances of making the CFB Playoff championship game.

BYU: 0.0%

Win National Championship %

Definition: Chances of winning the CFB Playoff championship game.

BYU: 0.0%.

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