Quantifying the Impact of the Big 12 Invite on BYU's Recruiting Efforts
On September 9, 2021, BYU accepted an invitation to join the Big 12 conference beginning in 2023. Even though the Cougars are 17 months away from competing as a Power Five program, the Cougars have benefitted from recruiting as a Power Five program ever since the announcement. Today, our aim is to quantify the impact of joining the Big 12 on BYU's recruiting efforts.
Recruiting Rankings
First, a note on recruiting rankings. Recruiting rankings are imperfect for a few reasons. They are top heavy, evaluations of individual players are imperfect, and some ratings are inflated by offers from big brands. Despite their imperfections, they are the best available measure of the raw talent on every college football roster. So with the caveats in mind, let's look at BYU's recruiting rankings since Kalani Sitake took over the program in 2016.
2016: #49
2017: #66
2018: #78
2019: #84
2020: #81
2021: #77
2022: #55
From 2016-2021, BYU's average recruiting rankings was 70.5. That puts the Cougars in the middle ground between the lower P5 schools and the higher G5 schools. After a quick glance at the last seven years, you could estimate that the Big 12 membership moved the Cougars anywhere from 10-20 spots up the recruiting rankings. BYU's 2022 class, which ranked no. 55 in the country, was the Cougars' highest ranking since they ranked no. 49 in 2016.
However, most of the players that signed with BYU as part of the 2022 signing class were committed to BYU before it was invited to the Big 12. So for the rest of this article, we will compare the prospects that BYU brought in before the Big 12 against the players that have committed since the Big 12 announcement.
Competing Offers
There are a few ways to measure recruiting success. One of my favorite ways is to look at the percentage of commits that have competing offers from one or more P5 schools. Like recruiting rankings, it's not a perfect measure, but it can approximate the level of competition that BYU faced to bring in its recruits.
From the class of 2016 to the class of 2022 (the 2022 prospects that committed before BYU joined the Big 12), 39% of BYU commits held at least one competing P5 offer. Since September 9th when BYU joined the Big 12, 15 players have committed to the Cougars, and 10 of them (67%) held at least one P5 offer.
If that trend holds true over the next few years, it would dramatically improve the depth on BYU's roster. For example, let's say the average signing class is comprised of 20 signees. Instead of signing 6-9 players with competing P5 offers, BYU would sign 12-14 players with P5 offers.
After four or five recruiting classes, BYU would go from a roster of 25-35 players who held P5 offers to 50-60. That is the kind of depth that BYU will need to endure a full Big 12 schedule.
Average Star Rating
Next, let's look at the average star ratings of the players that have committed to the Cougars since they were invited to join the Big 12. The average rating has improved from .824 to .845.
If you're not familiar with recruiting star ratings, this might not mean much to you. Essentially, BYU has gone from signing mostly low three-star prospects to signing mostly mid three-star prospects. What's the difference between a mid three-star recruit and a low three-star recruit? According to 247Sports, a mid three-star recruit "is a player that is considered to be a capable starter for a Power Five football team and an impact player at the Group of Five level." A low three-recruit is a "player that is considered to be a potential contributor at a Power Five program but a probable Group of Five starter with impact potential."
2023 Potential
BYU is recruiting over a dozen four-star recruits in the 2023 class. Given BYU's recent invite to the Big 12, the overall momentum of the program, and the strong class of players with ties to the program, BYU's 2023 class has the potential to be one of the best in school history. Numerically speaking, it has the chance to be the best in school history, but BYU's coaching staff has its work cut out for them if they are going to get the 2023 class to that level.