Pac-12 Basketball Notes: We'll See This Week If Arizona Is Title Material
Arizona’s comeback win over Stanford on Sunday gave the Wildcats sole possession of first place, suggesting order has been restored in the Pac-12 with Arizona now on its way to a conference title.
Well, let’s wait one more week before crowning the Wildcats -- until Arizona completes its treacherous road trip this week against Utah (Thursday) and Colorado (Saturday).
Yes, the Wildcats handled both teams easily earlier this season in Tucson, beating Utah by 19 points and Colorado by a whopping 47 points. But both Utah and Colorado have been horrible on the road – a combined 1-10 record in conference road games – but have been unbeatable this season at home – a combined 24-0 record on their home courts.
The Utes beat second-place Washington State by 22 points and UCLA by 46 points in games in Salt Lake City, while Colorado topped Oregon by 16 points and Oregon State by 33 points in the Buffs’ two most recent home games.
And let’s add the fact that Arizona is just 3-3 in conference road games to set up this road trip, which will determine whether the Wildcats are really the masters of the Pac-12 as the rest of the country seems to think.
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UCLA and Arizona State: They are what we thought they were
When Arizona State began Pac-12 play with a 4-0 record, including a sweep of Utah and Colorado, and UCLA started 1-4 in the conference, including a 46-point loss to Utah, media folks, who had predicted the opposite, shook their heads and confessed, “I guess we were wrong about those teams.”
But now, a month later, we are reminded of that perplexing 2006 tirade by the late Dennis Green, who declared, “They are who we thought they were.”
This is what we are saying about Arizona State and UCLA.
The Sun Devils have lost six of their last seven games and their last four in a row by an average margin of 14 points. The shooting woes during nonconference play that suggested problems in Pac-12 play have shown up. ASU shot worse than 39% from the field in each of its past three games, and made just 23.2% of its three-pointers during its four-game losing streak. Point guard Frankie Collins, who was the driving force in the Sun Devils’ 4-0 start, had more turnovers (13) than assists (9) during the four-game losing streak.
Now the Sun Devils (5-6) are in eighth place, a game behind UCLA, which has won five of its last six games, the only loss in that span being a six-point defeat at Arizona when the Bruins held an early 17-point lead. The difference seems to be at the point guard spot, where sophomore Dylan Andrews, who was muddling along averaging 5.8 points over the first 10 Pac-12 games, has scored 21, 18 and 20 points during the Bruins’ current three-game winning streak, collecting 14 assists with just four turnovers in that span while hitting 8-of-12 three-pointers.
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Maybe five Pac-12 Team in the Big Dance. Or maybe just one
It’s February, which means we start paying attention to those NCAA tournament projections all over the internet.
A look at recent projections suggests the Pac-12 could have as many as five teams in the NCAA Tournament. They also suggest the Pac-12 might get just one.
Arizona, with its road win over Duke and its current No. 4 NET rankings, is in, but the Wildcats are the only Pac-12 team that is safe.
All the projections have Utah in the 68-team field as well, although the Utes’ seeding continues to drop, putting them near the edge. Utah’s ugly 0-5 record in conference road games with away games against UCLA, Colorado and Oregon remaining leaves the Utes in jeopardy.
Then there's Colorado, Oregon and Washington State, all of whom are right on the cusp of making the NCAA field. Each internet projection has a different opinion of their current status. Some have Colorado in, some have Oregon in, and some have Washington State, but none has all three in the field and all of them are right on the cusp in that dangerous category of “last team in” or “first four out”. All three can make the NCAA tournament field with a strong February, but all three could drop out of sight too.
Check out the Bracketology listed by ESPN's Joe Lunardi on Monday as an example, with Washington State, Colorado and Oregon all on the edge of the cutline
Two things to remember: First, the Pac-12 tournament champion will get an automatic berth in the NCAA tournament, and Arizona has shown it is not unbeatable. Second, several at-large berths are always squeezed out with upset winners in other conference tournaments across the country. So a team in the “last four in” category is likely to be headed to the NIT when all the results are in.
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Pac-12 Player of the Year Standings
(A team’s place in the standings matters)
1. Caleb Love, Arizona – 18.9 points per game. It’s a cliché, but he’s the best player on the best team.
2. KJ Simpson, Colorado – 19.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 50.3% shooting, 46.0% three-point shooting.
3. Isaac Jones, Washington State – He averaged 19.6 points and 9.1 rebounds over the past seven games, and the Cougars went 6-1 in that span.
4. Maxime Raynaud, Stanford – 14.6 points, 10.0 rebounds. This 7-for-1 center earned a spot by going 5-for-6 on three-pointers Sunday.
5. Jaylon Tyson, Cal – 20.0 points, 7.3 rebounds. Tyson edges out Keion Brooks Jr. for the final spot because Cal is ahead of Washington in the standings.
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Top Five Pac-12 Teams
(Based on results, not the eye test)
1. Arizona (17-5, 8-3 Pac-12) – The Wildcats are back up to No. 8 in the AP rankings, and no other Pac-12 team is close to being ranked.
2. Washington State (16-6, 7-4) – The Cougars have won six of their past seven games, thanks to the overtime win against Washington.
3. UCLA (11-11, 6-5 Pac-12) – Yes, the overall record is mediocre, but no Pac-12 team is playing better at the moment.
4. Oregon (15-7, 7-4) – Ducks have lost four of their past six games, but it was a difficult stretch of opponents.
5. Colorado/Utah (15-7, 6-5) – Sometimes we get the feeling Utah and Colorado are the same team. Same overall record. Same conference record. Same dominance at home. Same trouble on the road.
Cover photo of Arizona's Caleb Love by Zachary BonDurant, USA TODAY Sports
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