Pac-12 NCAA Tourney Bids: USC Barely In; Oregon, ASU Still Close
Two weeks remain before the Pac-12 tournament, and three experts who project the 68-team NCAA tournament field pretty much agree on the status of the Pac-12’s postseason contenders.
Projections by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm and USA Today’s trio of Eddie Timanus, Paul Myerberg and Erick Smith are the three focus on, and they all have the same view of Pac-12 teams, which is unusual.
Before we begin we must remind everyone that all 12 Pac-12 teams are still in contention for an NCAA tournament bid, thanks to the Pac-12 tournament. (Yes, even Cal, with its 24 losses, technically has a chance to get into the Big Dance.) And there have been some surprises in past Pac-12/Pac-10 tournaments that have led to some unlikely NCAA bids and postseason success, as we will note later in this report.
But first things first.
We already assume that UCLA (23-4) and Arizona (24-4) will be in the NCAA field, with seeding being their only consideration. Both are listed as No. 2 seeds in all three projections.
However, the attention is on the four Pac-12 teams next in line – USC (19-8), Utah (17-11), Oregon (15-13) and Arizona State (19-9). The prevailing theory among Pac-12 observers is that the Trojans’ victories over Cal and Stanford have put USC safely into the NCAA field while losses by the other three eliminated them from NCAA tournament consideration.
Well, the three expert projections suggest it’s not that clearcut.
USC is placed into the field in all three projections, but just barely. USA Today, ESPN and CBS Sports all give the Trojans a No. 11 seed, forcing them into the play-in round and placing them in the “Last Four In” group. If we assume that at least a couple of the “Last Four In” teams will be pushed out of the field by upsets in conference tournaments around the nation, the Trojans are in a precarious position.
Their remaining regular-season schedule will make a strong finish unlikely. This week USC plays road games against Utah and Colorado, which are a combined 23-5 in home games this season. Then the Trojans host Arizona and Arizona State in their final games before the conference tournament. Losing three of those four games is very possible, and that would likely drop the Trojans out of the NCAA tournament field. However, if they win three of the four, their NCAA tournament berth should be assured.
Oregon and Arizona State are not in the field in any of the three projections and are not even among the “First Four Out.” USA Today and ESPN place both in the “Next Four Out,” which means they are still in the conversation, but need some impressive wins the next two week and/or some losses by other bubble teams across the country.
Oregon can’t do much before the conference tournament to improve its resume with games against Oregon State, Stanford and Cal remaining, but ASU plays Arizona, UCLA and USC in its final three games, giving the Sun Devils an opportunity to make or break their postseason hopes.
Utah is not listed at all in the three projections, putting the Utes on the far outside, but with games remaining against UCLA, USC and Colorado, the Utes could play their way back into the NCAA conversation if some results in other parts of the nation also go their way.
The fact that Utah (17-11) is ahead of Oregon in the Pac-12 standings and has a better overall record than the Ducks (15-13) may make some wonder why Oregon is in a better situation for the postseason than the Utes. But the selection committee looks at the entire season of work, with conference standings not a factor, and overall record is not as important as the quality of the wins and the strength of the schedule. The Ducks played a difficult nonconference schedule with games against Houston, Connecticut and Michigan State (all losses), and they have wins over Arizona, USC and Utah. TCU, Mississippi State and BYU were Utah’s toughest nonconference opponents, and its one good win was against Arizona.
You could argue -- and I would -- that conference standings should be a bigger factor than they are, but this is the way the system is set up now.
Of course, Utah could assure itself a spot in the NCAA tournament by winning the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas, and it’s possible Gabe Madsen, the Utes' second-leading scorer, could return for that.
There is precedent for long-shot teams winning the Pac-12 tournament.
The most notable, of course, was Oregon State’s Pac-12 tournament victory in 2021 after finishing 10-10 in conference play. The Beavers then made it all the way to the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament.
Oregon was just 10-8 in conference play when it won the 2019 conference tournament, Colorado was 11-7 in 2012 when it captured the Pac-12 tournament, Washington was 11-7 before winning the 2010 Pac-10 tournament, and USC was just 9-9 when it swept through the 2009 Pac-10 tournament. None would have made it to the NCAA tournament without winning the conference tournament.
Those 2009 Trojans were particularly interesting. They were just 7-9 entering the final regular-season weekend, then won their final two regular-season games, blew through the conference tournament, and, as a No. 10 seed, upset seventh-seeded Boston College by 17 points in the NCAA tournament. USC then nearly pulled off a major upset in the second round against second-seeded Michigan State, the eventual national runnerup that year. USC led the Spartans with six minutes left and were tied with less than four minutes to go before losing by five.
So Oregon State in 2021 and USC in 2009 showed a Pac-12/Pac-10 with a .500 conference record can win the conference tournament and do some damage in the NCAA tournament if they get hot at the right time.
Something is different this time around, though.
When Oregon State, Oregon, Colorado and Washington captured their conference tournament titles, there were no Pac-12 teams ranked in the top 20. And there were no top-10 Pac-10 teams when USC won in 2009. There was room for a surprise team to jump in.
This year No. 4 UCLA and No. 7 Arizona are both likely to finish in the top 10, so getting past both to earn an automatic NCAA tournament berth will be a major challenge.
USC, Oregon, Arizona State and Utah need to do their work before the conference tournament.
Here is how The Athletic explained the status of the Pac-12's four bubble terams and what they need to do:
Oregon (15-13, 9-8; NET: 49, SOS: 16): The Ducks are teetering on the edge of permanent bubble departure. Last week was a disaster. After losing at home to UCLA Feb. 11 — a huge opportunity gone unrealized — the Ducks lost both legs of their Washington road trip, in overtime to UW and 68-65 to Wazzu. The latter is actually a Quadrant 1 defeat (despite their ugly record, the NET continues to think Washington State is better than Wisconsin, which is pretty funny), but the Washington loss looks worse, and in any case the sheer fact of losing any game is bad news for a team that needed to go meaningfully in the opposite direction to even get in the bracket before it dropped three straight. Now Oregon has Oregon State, Cal and Stanford left on its schedule. If it wins all three, it will have a chance to impress in the Pac-12 tournament, but anything short of that and the Ducks are done. They’re probably done anyway.
USC (19-8, 11-5; NET: 56, SOS: 64): After Feb. 11’s unflattering road loss to Oregon State — there is something especially depressing about losing a crucial road game in front of 3,700 people in a 9,000-seat building, too — USC needed a couple of wins to get right. It got them last week, handling Cal and (more notably) a suddenly pesky Stanford team on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. What’s next will be trickier; on Thursday, USC goes to Colorado, followed by a trip to Utah. It is not unusual to see the Trojans placed right along the cut line, usually in the field, in mock brackets these days; a 1-1 record next week would keep them there in advance of Arizona’s arrival March 2. We’ll see.
Utah (17-11, 10-7; NET: 57, SOS: 71): This is the make-or-break week for Utah. The Utes lost at Arizona and Arizona State last weekend, the former of which is highly expected and the latter of which is forgivable. But the fact remains that the Utes are almost certainly on the outside looking in, and that this week brings UCLA and USC to town. Beating the Bruins, in particular, would add another quality win to this team’s resume. If Utah wins out — if it beats UCLA, USC and then wins at Colorado next week — it will have a shot.
Arizona State (19-9, 10-7; NET: 70, SOS: 90): Losing at home to Colorado: not good. Beating Utah at home: pretty good, but not good enough to wipe out the loss that happened two days earlier, especially when you need to make progress and not just tread water along the S-curve. The good news here remains the remaining schedule: at Arizona, at UCLA, at USC. Three wins and you’re likely looking at a tournament team. Anything less and — well, we’ll figure it out as we go, but the Sun Devils’ margin for error at this point is vanishingly small. Just win.
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Cover photo of Oregon's Will Richardson and USC's Drew Peterson is by Ben Lonergan, The Register-Guard, USA TODAY NETWORK
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