Pac-12 Basketball Notes: Washington State – The Rise of Nerdball
How does someone combine personnel from Division II Sonoma State, Cochise College, Wenatchee Valley College, South Carolina and North Macedonia into a Pac-12 title contender that is 20-6 overall, 11-4 in the conference, has won seven straight games (tied for the fifth-longest active Division I streak) and seems headed to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2008?
The answer is one word: Nerdball.
It’s what WSU coach Kyle Smith calls his brand of basketball. It’s pretty simple really – the theory of Nerdball, that is, not its implementation. It has to do with doing what the analytics are saying, a “Moneyball” approach if you will. Of course, every coach uses analytics these days, but not to the degree that Smith does.
It began when he was an assistant coach at Saint Mary’s under Randy Bennett, whose excessive use of analytics helped make a West Coast Conference powerhouse out of a bunch of spare parts, er, lightly recruited players.
Smith took the concept even further as San Francisco’s head coach and has apparently perfected it at Washington State.
He now bases starting lineups, offensive and defensive game plans, schedules and anything else that goes into a basketball season on more than 50 issues – some obvious, some ridiculously esoteric – that are meticulously measured via analytics.
Players and coaches have to buy in, because sometimes what the numbers say is counterintuitive. Plus players have to be smart enough to understand, ingest and use information that is compiled via a complex number system at each practice that tells the coach and the player what the player needs to work on and whether he’ll get any playing time.
You have to believe in the numbers more than you believe in your own eyes or in your basketball instincts.
The system is explained to recruits, and a highly rated recruit is unlikely to accept that his playing time might be based on a computer printout, but Smith is unlikely to get those players anyway.
So he gets Myles Rice, a third-year freshman from South Carolina who came across the country to WSU because it was the only school from a major basketball conference to offer him a scholarship.
So he gets Isaac Jones, who spent three seasons at Wenatchee Valley (Community) College before spending last season at Idaho.
So he gets Jaylen Wells, who was passed over by Division I schools coming out of high school and became a star at Division II Sonoma State the past two seasons.
So he gets Oscar Cluff, an Australian, who spent last season at Cochise (Community) College.
So he gets a guy from North Macedonia, three-point specialist Andrej Jakimovski, who is the only current starter who was on the active WSU roster a year ago.
The problem for Washington State is that the Cougars’ unexpected success is likely to make Smith a candidate at big-name basketball schools. When George Raveling earned two NCAA tournament berths at Washington State, he left and took a job at Iowa. When Kelvin Sampson got the Cougars to the Big Dance, he left to take a job at Oklahoma and is now head coach of second-ranked Houston. When Tony Bennett got WSU to two NCAA tournaments in his three seasons in Pullman, he left for a job at Virginia, where he won a national championship.
You may wonder whether Nerdball will be as effective at a big-name school where high-profile athletes are required for success. Well, the same was said about Tony Bennett’s patient, disciplined style of play, and Virginia has had unparalleled success under Bennett, finishing ranked in the top six five times.
.
Buzzer-beaters – the facilitators
Four games on Saturday and Sunday featured game-deciding shots in the final seconds. All four were on the road, and in Saturday's three thrillers the team’s best offensive player created an opportunity to score but turned down a chance to be a hero and dished off for a better shot that saved the victory.
Colorado’s KJ Simpson drove the baseline to draw the defense, then handed off to Luke O’Brien for a dunk that tied the game against USC with three seconds left. The Buffs won in double-overtime.
Cal’s Jaylon Tyson tried to drive the lane, but when the Washington defense converged on him, he passed back to Jalen Celestine, who nailed a three-pointer with four seconds left, turning a one-point deficit into a two-point victory.
Oregon’s Jermaine Couisnard collected a loose ball at the top of the key and drove down the lane, but instead of forcing his way through the Oregon State defense, Couisnard passed to N’Faly Dante, whose dunk with one second left gave the Ducks a two-point win.
O'Brien, Celestine and Dante made the game-deciding baskets, but Simpson, Tyson and Couisnard made the game-winning plays.
Then on Sunday, Utah pulled off its first Pac-12 road win since January 26, 2023, a streak of 10 straight conference road losses (not counting the first-round loss to Stanford in the 2023 Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas), when Branden Carlson came crashing in from a long way out to make a follow shot with two-tenths of a second left, giving the Utes a one-point win at UCLA.
Things might have turned out differently if Sebastian Mack, UCLA’s leading scorer, had not made this inexplicable move with 9:53 left in the first half, causing Mack’s ejection from the game.
.
Pac-12 Player of the Year Standings
(A team’s place in the standings matters)
1. Caleb Love, Arizona – At 18.8 points per game, he’s the best player on the best team.
2. KJ Simpson, Colorado – 19.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 44.5% three-point shooting, and helped the Buffs rally for a win over USC.
3. Myles Rice, Washington State – 15.9 points, 3.7 assists, 1.7 steals. A slight edge over teammate Isaac Jones, because a point guard makes everything work.
4. Oumar Ballo, Arizona – There is some thought that Pelle Larsson should get the Wildcats’ No. 2 spot on this list. But Ballo has been the anchor in the middle recently, averaging 16.2 points on 72.1% shooting and 13.2 rebounds over the past five games.
5. Jaylon Tyson, Cal – 20.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists. He can score in so many different ways.
.
Top Five Pac-12 Teams
(Based on results, not the eye test)
1. Arizona (20-5, 11-3 Pac-12) -- The 45-point win over Arizona State was the largest point spread in the history of this rivalry.
2. Washington State (20-6, 11-4) – The Cougars face a major challenge on Thursday, when they play Arizona in Tucson.
3. Oregon (17-8, 9-5) – Winning at Oregon State, as the Ducks did Saturday, is not easy. Just ask Arizona.
4. UCLA (14-12, 9-6) – Had it not been for Branden Carlson’s tap-in, the Bruins would own a seven-game winning streak now.
5. Colorado (17-9, 8-7) – Coming back from a 16-point deficit with 9:52 left to beat USC keeps the Buffs in our top five and in contention for an NCAA tournament berth.
Cover photo of Kyle Smith by Darren Yamashita, USA TODAY Sports
Follow Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53
Find Cal Sports Report on Facebook by going to https://www.facebook.com/si.calsportsreport