Pac-12 Basketball Notes: Is the WCC Better Than the Pac-12?

Why have Pac-12 teams prospered when their best players are sidelined?

We have just two questions with lengthy answers this week, so you can skip ahead and look at our team and player rankings and our numbers of note if you want.

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---Question No. 1: Is the West Coast Conference better than the Pac-12 this season?

This is a rather pointless debate with no definitive conclusion, especially since we are not including the other west conference of significance (Mountain West Conference), but being pointless never stopped us before, so . . . .

How should we compare the Pac-12 and WCC?

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Method No. 1: How have the conferences done against each other in games this season?

Pac-12 teams faced WCC teams 13 times this season and the Pac-12 had a 7-6 record in those games. However, only one of those games was played on the home floor of the WCC team (Santa Clara beat Stanford by 16 points in that game). WCC teams won three games on the Pac-12 team’s home floor and won both games played at neutral sites. (Of note: Gonzaga beat UCLA by 20 points in Las Vegas; BYU, which is 7-6 in the WCC, beat Oregon, which is 10-6 in the Pac-12, by 32 points in Portland, Ore.)

Advantage WCC, but it’s close

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Method No. 2: Which conference has the best team?

Gonzaga of the WCC is No. 1 in the country and Arizona of the Pac-12 is likely to be No. 2 when the rankings come out Monday.

Advantage to neither

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Method No. 3: Which conference has more top-tier teams?

Three Pac-12 teams – Arizona, UCLA and USC – are currently ranked in the top 20 and all are expected to remain there this week. One WCC team (Gonzaga) is in the top 25, but San Francisco and Saint Mary’s have been ranked this season, and Saint Mary’s is a good bet to re-enter the top 25 Monday after beating San Francisco and BYU this past week.

Advantage Pac-12.

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Method No. 4: Which conference has better teams at the bottom of the standings, indicating greater depth of talent?

Last-place Pac-12 team Oregon State is 251st in the current NET rankings, while Cal and Utah, who are tied for 10th, are 140th and 122nd, respectively.

Pepperdine, which is in last place in the 10-team WCC, is 280th in the NET. Ninth-place Loyola Marymount is 217th and eighth-place Pacific is 279th.

Advantage Pac-12

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Method No. 5: Which conference has the higher RPI ranking:

Here is how the conferences stack up in the RPI rankings as of Sunday:

1. Big 12

2. SEC

3. Big Ten

4. Big East

5. Mountain West

6. Pac-12

7. ACC

8. WCC

Those rankings seem to make sense, although it is interesting that the Mountain West ranks ahead of the Pac-12, ACC and WCC even though no MWC team is ranked in the AP top 20 this week. 

Advantage Pac-12

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Method No. 6: Which conference will have more teams in the NCAA tournament?

At the moment, most bracketologists have three Pac-12 teams (Arizona, UCLA, USC) and three WCC teams (Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, San Francisco) in the tournament, with each conference having one team on the bubble (Oregon, BYU). (By the way, the Mountain West Conference also appears to have three teams likely to get an NCAA tournament bid, with one team – San Diego State – on the bubble.)

The fact that the WCC might have more NCAA tournament teams than the Pac-12 is historically significant. Only once since the West Coast Conference came into existence as the West Coast Athletic Conference in 1953 has the WCC had more NCAA tournament teams than the Pac-12/Pac-10/Pac-8/Athletic Association of Western Universities/Pacific Coast Conference. That one exception was 2012, when the WCC had three NCAA teams and the Pac-12 had two.

Gone are the days when the Pac-12 dominated this category like it did in 2014 and 2016, when it had seven NCAA tournament teams and the WCC had one both times.

Advantage to neither

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Of course, the ultimate comparison method comes in the postseason, when we see how Pac-12 and WCC teams do in the postseason. The Pac-12 helped its reputation immensely with its strong showing in last year’s NCAA tournament. If Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and/or San Francisco does well in the postseason while Arizona, UCLA and/or USC falter, the WCC could move ahead.

But for now the winner is . . . .

The Pac-12, by a hair, but the fact that the Pac-12 gets more national exposure than the WCC is one reason it is seen as superior.

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---Question No. 2: Why have Pac-12 teams fared well when their best players are out?

UCLA’s Saturday annihilation of a Washington team that desperately needed to win to improve its chances for an NCAA tournament berth was another example of this phenomenon.

The Bruins played without Johnny Juzang, a preseason All-America selection, but they embarrassed the Huskies, taking a 35-point lead eight minutes into the second half and cruising. Juzang had missed two earlier games because of COVID protocols, and the Bruins won those two games against Cal and Stanford by 24 and 23 points, respectively.

USC recorded its best win of the season when it defeated UCLA with the Trojans’ best player, Isaiah Mobley, out of action, and Cal pulled off the best win in Mark Fox’s three season as head coach when the Bears defeated Oregon in Eugene despite the absence of their best player, Andre Kelly.

In each case another player had a career game to fill the void, and the opponent was not prepared for the adjustments the team made without its star.

Jaylen Clark replaced Juzang in the starting lineup against Washington and had a career-high 25 points.

Drew Peterson took control of the USC offense in Mobley’s absence and had the game of his life in the win over UCLA.

Jordan Shepherd had a career-high 33 points in Cal’s road upset of Oregon.

But if opponents have time to adjust to the changes, the star’s absence become more noticeable.

In its two home games following the upset at Oregon, Cal lost to both Colorado and Utah as teams decided to put extra defensive pressure on Shepherd with Kelly's inside presence missing.

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Top Five Pac-12 Teams (at the moment)

---1. Arizona (24-2, 14-1 Pac-12) – The Wildcats are in position for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

---2. UCLA (19-5, 11-4) – Crushing Washington without Cody Riley or Johnny Juzang was impressive.

---3. USC (23-4, 12-4) – The Trojans escaped against Washington State.

---4. Oregon (17-10, 10-6) – The Ducks host UCLA and USC and need to win at least one, maybe both, to get to NCAA tournament.

---5. Colorado (18-9, 10-7) – Buffs are making a late bid for an NCAA tournament berth.

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Pac-12 Player of the Year Standings (The Magnificent Seven):

----1. Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona – Mathurin has solidified his spot atop these rankings with four straight 20-plus-point games.

Air Benn cleared for takeoff 🚀

The steal and the slam for @BennMathurin!

📺 @Pac12Network pic.twitter.com/YDu4ChtmNp

— Arizona Basketball (@ArizonaMBB) February 18, 2022

---2. Terrell Brown Jr., Washington – He still leads the Pac-12 in scoring at 21.8 points, but his 5-for-17 showing against UCLA and the Huskies’ three-game losing streak push him well below Mathurin.

---3. Johnny Juzang, UCLA – He’s second in the Pac-12 in scoring at 17.9 points, and the Bruins are still a top-15 team.

---4. Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona – He’s good for about 15 and 7 virtually every game, and often more.

---5. Will Richardson, Oregon – Richardson is just 6-for-28 on three-pointers the past five games, but he should have attempted a three-pointer in the closing seconds of the three-point loss to Arizona.

---6. Isaiah Mobley, USC – Mobley is averaging 14.6 points and 8.3 boards, and he can pass the ball too.

---7. Jabari Walker, Colorado -- Walker (14.5 points, 9.2 rebounds) didn’t do a lot on Saturday against Stanford, but he had been a beast the previous three games for a team that is rising in the standings.

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Player of the Week:

Jaylen Clark, UCLA

Jaylen Clark. Photo by Kirby Lee, USA TODAY Sports

Moved into the starting lineup this past week, Clark had the two best scoring games of his career in blowout wins over Washington State and Washington. He had 25 points on 12-for-16 shooting against Washington, and he had collected 18 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and four steals two days earlier against Washington State.

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Team on the Rise

---Arizona State Cal (11-15, 4-11) – Yes, Colorado has a longer winning streak at five in a row, but the Sun Devils three-game streak is more impressive because it included a win over Oregon and a road victory over Washington State. Plus, the Sun Devils had sunk lower than Colorado before this recent surge, making the rise more noteworthy.

Utah’s road sweep of the Bay Area schools should not be ignored in this category as the Utes are clearly playing better.

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Team on the Skids

---Washington State (14-12, 7-8) – Granted, this was a difficult stretch for the Cougars, but they may have taken themselves out of contention for an NCAA tournament berth with their five-game losing streak.

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Team on a Mystery Tour

---Stanford (15-12, 8-9) – The Cardinal looked like an NCAA tournament team a few weeks ago, when it has two wins over USC, a road win over Washington State and an 18-point victory over Washington on its resume. But Stanford has lost four of its last five games to take itself out of the postseason picture, at least for now.

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Numbers of Note:

5 -- Number of two-point field goals Washington State made against USC on Sunday, and the Cougars lost by just two. The Cougars made 15 three-pointers.

4 -- Number of two-point field goals USC made in the second half against Washington State, and the Trojans won.

15.6 -- Washington State's percentage on two-point shots against USC.

0-6 -- Washington State's record in games decided by three points or fewer, which includes three of their past four games.

66.1 – Arizona’s assist-to-field goal percentage, which is the best in the country. If you are looking for a statistic that explains the Wildcats’ success this season, this is it. They share the ball and it leads to points.

71.7 – Arizona’s assist-to-field goal percentage over the past three games, all of which Arizona won

26 – Number assists Arizona had on its 32 made field goals against Oregon State.

20.4 – Arizona’s assists per game, which ranks first in the nation. (No one else in the country averages as many as 19.0 assists per contest.)

0 -- Wins by Oregon State in 2022. (Beavers' last victory was on Dec. 30, 2021.)

9 – Positions Oregon rose in the NET rankings after it lost to Arizona on Saturday. Apparently losing by just three points to the Wildcats in Tucson works well in the NET metrics. Oregon was 72nd in the NET rankings before the game and 63rd after it.

5 – Consecutive games Colorado has won, giving it the Pac-12’s second-longest current winning streak, behind Arizona’s eight in a row.

0 – Number of teams Colorado beat during that five-game winning streak that have a winning conference record. The Buffaloes host Arizona this week, so we’ll see how that streak holds up.

0 – Number of games this season Arizona’s Christian Koloko failed to get at least one block.

15 – Number of games Koloko had three blocks or more.

37.3 -- Field-goal percentage of Arizona's opponents, which is the third best in the country. (I detect a connection to the Koloko numbers.)

3 – Number of three-point shots Koloko has attempted this season.

0 – Number of three-point shots Koloko has made this season.

1 – Number of free throws Arizona State’s DJ Horne has missed this season in 29 attempts.

11 – UCLA sophomore Jayden Clark’s career high in points before he scored 18 on Thursday against Washington State. Clark then scored 25 points two days later against Washington.

6 – Number of games on Washington State’s schedule in a 14-day stretch that started Sunday. The Cougars play Washington in consecutive games and Oregon State in consecutive games during that two-week span.

100 – The percent of Oregon’s chances of making the NCAA tournament that rest with its next two games, against UCLA on Thursday and USC on Saturday, both in Eugene. The Ducks beat both teams on the road earlier this season.

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Cover photo of UCLA vs. Gonzaga is by Stephen R. Sylvie, USA TODAY Sports

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Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53

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