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Pac-12 NCAA Tournament Projections: Arizona a No. 1 seed, the Rest Uncertain

Washington State is in, barely, but Utah and Colorado are in limbo according to Bracketology of seven sites.
Jake Curtis|
Pac-12 NCAA Tournament Projections: Arizona a No. 1 seed, the Rest Uncertain
Pac-12 NCAA Tournament Projections: Arizona a No. 1 seed, the Rest Uncertain

Selection Sunday on March 17 is less than five weeks away, so it’s time to start taking seriously the NCAA tournament projections for the 68-team field.

We take a look at seven sites that project the NCAA tournament field as of this week, and there are considerable differences when it comes to the Pac-12. One site has four Pac-12 teams in the field, two have just two teams from the conference making it, and three put three Pac-12 teams in the field. The only unanimity is regarding Arizona, which is a No. 1 seed in all seven projections. Washington State also is in the field in all seven, but just barely, and there is considerable uncertainty regarding Colorado and Utah.

Oregon has fallen out of contention, at least for now, in all seven sites, and UCLA, despite being third in the Pac-12 standings, is not even close to making the 68-team field with its 8-5 conference record. That’s because the Bruins have an ugly NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) ranking of No. 111, thanks to their poor nonconference performance. (See a chart of how NET rankings are calculated at the end of this story.)

Nonconference results count as much as conference games in the minds of the NCAA tournament selection committee, which is a mistake in my mind. Conference standings and results are more indicative of a team’s quality than nonconference games, when teams are trying to figure things out.

Who would be more dangerous in the postseason, Utah or UCLA? Obviously UCLA, which is playing its best basketball right now, while the Utes are fading. But the Utes have a shot at an at-large berth while the Bruins will have to win the Pac-12 tournament to get in.

But we forge ahead.

First we provide the overall record, Pac-12 record and NET ranking of each of the five Pac-12 teams in contention for an at-large NCAA tournament berth:

Arizona (19-5, 10-3 Pac-12) NET No. 3

Washington State (18-6, 9-4 Pac-12) NET No. 38

Utah (15-9, 6-7 Pac-12) NET No. 47

Colorado (16-8, 7-6 Pac-12) NET No. 35

Oregon (16-8, 8-5 Pac-12) NET No. 63

Now we present where each of the five Pac-12 NCAA tournament-contending teams are seeded in the NCAA tournament projections posted either Monday or Tuesday of this week by seven credible sites – ESPN, CBS Sports, NCAA.com, USA Today, Fox Sports, The Sporting News and Bleacher Report. 

A designation of “First Four Out” means that team was among the four teams closest to making the field but barely missed. A designation of “Next Four Out” means it is among the four teams closest to being included in the field after the First Four Out teams. A designation of “Last Four In” means that team made the field by the skin of its teeth and is probably one of four at-large teams that would have to play a preliminary-round game.

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ESPN (Joe Lunardi)

Pac-12 teams in -- 3

Arizona – No. 1 seed

Washington State – No. 9 seed

Utah – No. 11 seed -- Last Four In

Colorado – Next Four Out

Oregon – Not included

.

CBS Sports (Jerry Palm)

Pac-12 teams in -- 4

Arizona – No. 1 seed

Washington State -- No. 7 seed

Utah – No. 11 seed – Last Four In

Colorado – No. 11 seed – Last Four In

Oregon – Not Included

.

NCAA (Andy Katz)

Pac-12 teams in -- 2

Arizona – No. 1 seed

Washington State -- No. 9 seed

Utah – First Four Out

Colorado – First Four Out

Oregon – Not Included

.

USA TODAY (Paul Myerberg, Erick Smith, Eddie Timanus)

Pac-12 teams in -- 3

Arizona – No. 1 seed

Washington State -- No. 10 seed

Utah – No. 11 seed – Last Four In

Colorado – Next Four Out

Oregon – Not included

.

Fox Sports (Mike DeCourcy)

Pac-12 teams in -- 2

Arizona – No. 1 seed

Washington State -- No. 11 seed

Utah – Not included

Colorado – Not included

Oregon – Not included

.

The Sporting News (Bill Bender)

Pac-12 teams in -- 3

Arizona – No. 1 seed

Washington State -- No. 11 seed

Utah – No. 9 seed (the only site that has Utah seeded higher than Washington State)

Colorado – First Four Out

Oregon – Not included

.

Bleacher Report (Kerry Miller)

Pac-12 teams in -- 3

Arizona – No. 1 seed

Washington State -- No. 10 seed

Utah – No. 11 seed – Last Five In

Colorado – Not Included in First Five Out or Next Five Out

Oregon – Not included

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Joe Lunardi's Wednesday Bracketology twitter:

Obviously, Colorado's road games Thursday at UCLA and Saturday at USC are pivotal as are Utah's road games against those same two L.A. schools Thursday and Saturday.

Confused by the NET rankings? Here's an explanation:

Cover photo of Arizona's Keshad Johnson by Isaiah J. Downing, USA TODAY Sports

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Jake Curtis
JAKE CURTIS

Jake Curtis worked in the San Francisco Chronicle sports department for 27 years, covering virtually every sport, including numerous Final Fours, several college football national championship games, an NBA Finals, world championship boxing matches and a World Cup. He was a Cal beat writer for many of those years, and won awards for his feature stories.

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