Pac-12 NCAA Tournament Bids: USC, Oregon, ASU, Utah on the Bubble

UCLA, Arizona are fighting for No. 1 seeds, but this week’s game may determine the postseason chances of four conference teams on the edge

The Pac-12 might get only two teams into the NCAA basketball tournament, which would be the fewest of any of the six major basketball conferences. But it could get as many as six teams in the Big Dance because four teams – USC, Oregon, Arizona State and Utah – are sitting precariously on the bubble, as we will see in the bracketology listings below. It means a strong finish in the final three weeks of the regular season and the Pac-12 tournament by any of these four teams could put it in the field of 68.

Then there is the far outside chance of the Pac-12 getting a seventh team into the NCAA tournament if a surprise team like Colorado or Stanford or Washington State wins the Pac-12 tournament. (Oregon State finished tied for sixth with a 10-10 conference record in 2021 and ended up going to the Elite Eight.)

But that’s getting ahead of ourselves.

The immediate concern is this week’s games and their potential impact starting with tonight’s (Wednesday’s) game at Washington. Oregon can’t afford to lose this one or its Sunday game at Washington State because no team is in a more ambiguous postseason position than the Ducks, as we will see below.

Then again USC can’t afford to lose Thursday’s home game against Cal or Saturday’s home game against Stanford to maintain its spot in the NCAA field, since the Trojans are, by most bracketologists, just hanging in the NCAA field.

Meanwhile Utah could put itself back into the thick of the race to land an NCAA berth if it beats Arizona on Thursday, giving the Utes a season sweep of the Wildcats. The Utes might also have to win Saturday’s road game against Arizona State, a contest that will impact the postseason hopes of both teams. Before that Arizona State needs to win its Thursday home game against Colorado. No one can predict what the Sun Devils will do because they look like a solid NCAA tournament team some nights, but look clueless on others.

In the meantime, UCLA needs to sweep Stanford and Cal and Arizona needs to beat Utah and Colorado to maintain hope of landing a No. 1 seed.

Of course, the results of other games across the country involving bubble teams will affect the postseason chances of Pac-12 teams as well.

So let’s take a look at where the six Pac-12 teams of note are positioned, according to four reputable reporters who projected the NCAA tournament field this week: Joe Lunardi of ESPN, Jerry Palm of CBS Sports, Andy Katz of NCAA.com and the trio of Eddie Timanus, Paul Myerberg and Erick Smith at USA Today. (“First four out” means the top four teams that barely miss making the field. “Next four out” are the four highest rated teams after the “First Four out.”)

Here is Katz talking about his projections, with the others listed below that:

UCLA (NET ranking: 5)

ESPN: No. 2 seed

CBS Sports: No. 2 seed

USA Today: No. 1 seed

NCAA.com: No. 2 seed

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Arizona (NET ranking: 11)

ESPN: No. 2 seed

CBS Sports: No. 3 seed

USA Today: No. 2 seed

NCAA.com: No. 3 seed

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Bracketology status of the Pac-12's four bubble teams are listed below this Lunardi tweet

pic.twitter.com/ZjRcQGANqq

— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 14, 2023

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USC (NET ranking: 64)

ESPN: First four out

CBS Sports: No. 10 seed

USA Today: Last four in, No. 11 seed, play-in game

NCAA.com: No. 11 seed, play-in game

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Oregon (NET ranking: 48)

ESPN: First team out (highest rated team to fail to make the 68-team cut)

CBS Sports: First four out

USA Today: First four out

NCAA.com: First eight out

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Arizona State (NET ranking: 68)

ESPN: Next four out

CBS Sports: First four out

USA Today: Next four out

NCAA.com: First eight out

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Utah (NET ranking: 51)

ESPN: Next four out

CBS Sports: Not listed

USA Today: Not listed

NCAA.com: First eight out

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Katz’s bubble-watch tweet

Bubble look this week for ⁦@CBBonFOX⁩: https://t.co/x00NfhJxGe

— Andy Katz (@TheAndyKatz) February 14, 2023

Here is what ESPN.com said about the Pac-12 bubble teams in a Feb. 15 article:

USC Trojans

As recently as Groundhog Day, mock brackets displayed the Trojans as a No. 10 or even a No. 9 seed. That same day, however, was the last time we saw USC playing at full strength. With both Joshua Morgan and Reese Dixon-Waters both sidelined by injuries ever since, Andy Enfield's team has lost two of three and is down to either "last four in" or "first four out" status in those same projections. In theory, USC now has two winnable games coming up at home against Cal and Stanford. The Trojans would be well advised to prove both contests are indeed winnable.

(updated Feb. 13)

Oregon Ducks

Losing at home to UCLA by seven made effectively zero difference to the metrics on Oregon's team sheet. The Ducks are still positioned right outside the projected field of 68, only now this team's pursuit of a bid will entail accumulating wins against opponents that aren't vying for at-large bids. Dana Altman's team is done playing the top of the Pac-12 and will finish out the regular season with five outings against the league's bottom half. For the sake of discussion, a 4-1 run through that homestretch would bring Oregon to the Pac-12 tournament at 19-12 and 13-7 in conference play. We could be seeing the Ducks here in "Work to do" -- no lower and quite possibly no higher -- for a while.

(updated Feb. 12) 

Arizona State Sun Devils

After losing four straight and being cast off as a bubble has-been, Arizona State worked its way back into the conversation. There's still a neutral-floor victory over Creighton as well as one at Oregon on this profile, after all. The question for the Sun Devils with five games remaining is whether their final three outings in that series will constitute an opportunity or a trap door. The two most difficult games the Pac-12 can offer in 2023 are road dates at Arizona and UCLA. Once ASU has navigated that twin bill, the team will proceed to USC for the regular-season finale. Bobby Hurley's group plays good interior D and Nevada transfer Desmond Cambridge is a volume scorer who owns one of the league's highest steal rates.

(updated Feb. 14).

Utah Utes

If you've been thinking to yourself "I'll bet the next team to debut at Bubble Watch will be one that's lost home games to Stanford and Sam Houston State," congratulations! (The Bearkats are tough, by the way, keep an eye on Jason Hooten's team.) Utah has hit some rough patches on the way to 17-9, but Craig Smith's group refuses to allow opponents to make shots. Meanwhile 7-footer

Branden Carlson

is wearing out the Pac-12 by drawing five fouls per 40 minutes then shooting free throws like he plays for Villanova (85% in conference play). With a borderline top-50 NET ranking and, of course, that 15-point win at home over Arizona back in December, the Utes have joined the bubble fun.

(updated Feb. 14)

One thing to remember: It is likely that at least two at-large spots are likely to disappear based on upsets in conference tournaments. 

For example, if Loyola Marymount, which beat both Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga during the season, wins the West Coast Conference tournament, the Lions would get the automatic NCAA tournament berth and Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga would get at-large berths. That would give the WCC three NCAA tournament berths instead of two, pushing out the last at-large team that would have made the field without that upset.

Number of projected NCAA tournament representatives from the top six basketball conferences:

ESPN: Big Ten - 8, Big 12 - 8, SEC - 8, ACC - 7, SEC - 7, Big East - 5, Pac-12 - 2.

CBS Sports: Big Ten - 9, Big 12 - 8, SEC - 6, ACC - 6, Big East – 5, Pac-12 – 3

USA Today: Big Ten – 8, Big 12 – 8, ACC – 7, SEC – 7, Big East – 5, Pac-12 – 3

NCAA.com: Big Ten – 8, Big 12 – 8, ACC – 8, SEC – 6, Big East – 5, Pac-12 – 3

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If you want a metrics look at each team's chances of getting into the NCAA tournament or chances of getting a No. 1 seed, click here.

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Cover photo by Ben Lonergan, The Register-Guard, USA TODAY NETWORK

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