Pac-12 Basketball Tournament Preview: Is UCLA on the Bubble?

Bruins, Oregon, USC or Colorado could be considered favorite of wide-open event. Matchups, odds, TV provided

Four favorites with UCLA being the center of attention -- that’s the short version of the preview of the Pac-12 men’s basketball tournament, which starts Wednesday in Las Vegas.

No Pac-12 team is invincible as evidenced by the fact that the highest-ranked Pac-12 team in this week’s AP poll, 23rd-ranked Colorado, lost to last-place Cal less than a month ago. Upsets are expected.

USC is the betting favorite according one betting site, Colorado is the favorite in another and Oregon is a co-favorite in a third. (See odds at the bottom of the story.) Those three teams seem to have NCAA tournament berths locked up even if they don’t win the conference tournament to get the automatic bid.

And then there’s UCLA, the fourth team among the favorites. The Bruins probably will get into the NCAA tournament even if they don't win the conference tournament, but there is a bit of uncertainty.

Most sites have UCLA seeded ninth or 10th in their projected 68-team field, but several reputable sites, including CBS Sports and the Washington Post, have the Bruins as a No. 11 seed. That would put UCLA on the bubble, and if the Bruins should lose their opening game against Oregon State and surprises crop up in a few other conference tournaments, UCLA could be sitting on needles and pins when the NCAA tournament field is announced on Sunday.

One site, bracket matrix, compiles the NCAA tournament projections of more than 100 sites and it gives UCLA an average seed of 10th, which seems pretty safe.

But what matters is the objective and subjective opinion of the 10-person NCAA tournament selection committee. And those folks will see this:

UCLA went 0-3 against the top two finishers in the Pac-12, Oregon and USC, and the Bruins’ best win came way back on January 2, against Colorado. If UCLA loses to Oregon State on Thursday, the Bruins will have lost their last four games, their mediocre NET ranking of 41 that would drop further, and they will have lost seven games against Pac-12 foes in a conference that is not highly respected at the moment.

The other team of interest is Stanford, which probably needs to win the Pac-12 tournament to get an NCAA berth. Whether Oscar da Silva plays will have a major impact on the Cardinal’s chances, and the Cardinal has looked horrible with him sitting out the final three regular-season games..

Looking for a darkhorse? Try Arizona State. The Sun Devils looked awful in their last two games, but if Remy Martin snaps out of his scoring slump and freshman Marcus Bagley plays, they have the talent to upset some teams. ASU freshman Josh Christopher missed the final seven games with a back injury, but if he should return this week, that’s another offensive weapon. There is a reason Arizona State was the preseason pick to finish second.

The tournament should also be a showcase for four players: Stanford’s Oscar da Silva (if he plays), Oregon’s Chris Duarte (who always makes big plays at crunch time), Colorado’s McKinley Wright IV (the ultimate team leader and jack of all trades) and USC Evan Mobley (Pac-12 player of the year who likely to be a top-five pick in the upcoming NBA draft).

Our pick? Oregon. The Ducks have won five games in row and 10 of their last 11, and with Will Richardson at the point the second half of the season, they have been consistently productive.

Here are the matchups with TV coverage. The betting line from Vegas Insider is included for Wednesday’s three first-round games.

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WEDNESDAY FIRST-ROUND GAMES

No. 9 Washington State vs. No. 8 Arizona State, 1 p.m., Pac-12 Networks. Betting line: Arizona State favored by 1 point.

No. 10 Washington vs. No. 7 Utah, 4 p.m., Pac-12 Networks. Betting line: Utah favored by 7.5 points.

No. 11 Cal vs. No. 6 Stanford, 7 p.m., Pac-12 Networks. Betting line: Stanford favored by 6.5 points

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THURSDAY'S QUARTERFINAL GAMES

No. 1 Oregon vs. winner of Washington State-Arizona State, 11:30 a.m., Pac-12 Networks

No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 5 Oregon State, 2:30 p.m., Pac-12 Networks

No. 2 USC vs. winner of Washington-Utah, 5:30 p.m., Pac-12 Networks

No. 3 Colorado vs. Stanford-Cal winner, 8:30 p.m., ESPN

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FRIDAY'S SEMIFINAL GAMES

Oregon, Washington State, Arizona State survivor vs. UCLA-Oregon State winner, 5:30 p.m., Pac-12 Networks

USC, Washington, Utah survivor vs. Colorado, Cal, Stanford survivor, 8:30 p.m., ESPN

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SATURDAY'S CHAMPIONSHIP GAME, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

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BETTING ODDS TO WIN PAC-10 TOURNAMENT FROM THREE SITES

SportsBettingDime odds

1. Colorado: 3/1

2. Oregon: 7/2

3. USC: 9/2

3. UCLA: 9/2

5. Oregon State: 22/1

6. Stanford: 23/1

7. Utah: 35/1

8. Arizona State: 44/1

9. Washington State: 67/1

10. California: 150/1

10. Washington: 150/1

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BetOnline.ag odds 

Colorado 2/1

Oregon 2/1

USC 12/5

UCLA 11/2

Stanford 16/1

Arizona State 28/1

Oregon State 28/1

Utah 28/1

Washington State 66/1

California 250/1

Washington 250/1

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BetMGM odds via Vegas Insider

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Cover photo of UCLA all-conference guard Tyger Campbell driving on USC's Pac-12 player of the year Evan Mobley is by Gary A. Vasquez, USA TODAY Sports

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Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53

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