Pac-12 Basketball: How the Pac-12 Tournament Might Have Played Out

Who do you think would have won the event in Las Vegas if it had been completed?

Who would have won the Pac-12 basketball tournament?

It was considered a wide-open event when it began, and NCAA tournament berths were on the line. But only one day of competition and four games were completed before the tournament was canceled because of concerns about the novel coronavirus.

Eight teams (including Cal) and three days remained, so we thought: What would have happened if play had continued? Would Cal continue to pull off upsets? 

Here is a Mark Fox video shot late in the season with the Cal coach talking about exceeding preseason expectations:

So instead of just wondering, we decided to offer a scenario of how things might have played out in the Pac-12 tournament.

Day 2 Quarterfinals:

No. 1 seed Oregon vs. No. 8 seed Oregon State

Photo by Troy Wayrynen - USA TODAY Sports

Regular-season results: These two teams split their regular-season meetings, with Oregon State winning by 10 points at home and Oregon taking the second matchup by 15 points in Eugene on February 27.

The quarterfinal game: The Beavers are feeling pretty good after their two-point win over Utah in the first round, and they jump out to an early 12-6 lead. But Tres Tinkle (No. 3 in photo above) did not shoot well in either regular-season game against the Ducks, going 0-for-7 on three-point shots in the two games combined. Oregon keeps his perimeter game under wraps for a third time in the quarterfinals, limiting Tinkle to 15 points.

Meanwhile Payton Pritchard, who has been spectacular in the Ducks’ four-game winning streak to end the regular season, starts pouring in three-pointers from 30 feet out as Oregon surges ahead.

Although Ethan Thompson keeps the Beavers within striking distance with his offense, Oregon maintains its lead throughout the second half. Pritchard finishes with 24 points and seven assists, but the key to staying ahead in the second half was Anthony Mathis. He had made 15-of-24 three-point shots over the Ducks’ final four regular-season games, and he makes five of nine three-point shots in this quarterfinal game, including three timely three-pointers in the second half.

Final score: Oregon 70, Oregon State 62. (Oregon 25-7, Oregon State 18-14)

No. 5 seed Arizona vs. No. 4 seed USC

Photo by Kirby Lee - USA TODAY Sports

Regular-season results: USC lost to the Wildcats by five points in Tucson, but evened the score with a nine-point victory in Los Angeles on February 27 when Arizona shot 28.1 percent from the field.

The quarterfinal game: Both teams are coming off encouraging wins. Arizona took out Washington in the first round after losing to the Huskies at home a week earlier. USC finished the regular season by ending UCLA’s seven-game winning streak, thanks to Jonah Mathews’ three-pointer with one second left.

This one is a dogfight from the start. Arizona freshman point guard Nico Mannion (No. 1 in photo above) was just 6-for-24 from the field in the two previous games against the Trojans, but he helps the Wildcats build a five-point halftime lead by scoring 10 points and dishing out five assists in the first 20 minutes.

The Trojans begin shutting down Arizona defensively in the second half as Onyeka Okongwu and Nick Rakocevic start to dominate the boards. USC moves out to a two-point lead with a minute left.

Arizona freshman Josh Green, who is coming off a 19-point game in the first-round win over Washington, hits a three-pointer with 39 seconds left to put the Wildcats back on top by a point. But Mathews does it again, lining up a shot from the top of the key and draining it with 10 seconds remaining to push USC back ahead.

After a timeout, Arizona fails to get a good shot and Zeke Nnaji ends up forcing up a contested 18-footer that barely touches iron.

Both teams feel they are comfortably into the NCAA tournament, however.

Final score: USC 78, Arizona 77. (USC 23-9, Arizona 21-12)

No. 11 seed Washington State vs. No. 3 seed Arizona State

Photo by Joe Camporeale - USA TODAY Sports

Regular-season results: These teams also split their regular-season matchups, with the Cougars winning by two in Pullman when CJ Elleby hit a three-pointer with four seconds left, and the Sun Devils taking out WSU by nine points in ASU’s final regular-season game when Elleby went 2-for-19 from the field.

The quarterfinal game: Elleby broke out of his late-season shooting slump in a big way in the first-round victory over Colorado, hitting 6-of-10 three-point shots while scoring 30 points. But the streaky Elleby can’t find the range again against Arizona State. He takes 20 shots against the Sun Devils but makes only five and is 1-for-9 from distance.

Down by eight at halftime, the Cougars use their grit to prevent Arizona State from running away in the second half. But Remy Martin (No. 1 in photo above), who was just 9-for-30 from the field in the first two games against Washington State, scores 12 of 18 points in the second half and Alonzo Verge Jr. scores half of his 16 points after intermission to keep the Sun Devils in control.

Final score: Arizona State 65, Washington State 58. (Arizona State 21-11, Washington State 16-17)

No. 10 seed Cal vs. No. 2 seed UCLA

Photo by Richard Mackson - USA TODAY Sports

Regular-season results: UCLA won the only regular-season meeting between the teams, scoring a 50-40 victory over the Bears on January 19. It was Cal’s lowest scoring output of the season, and the Bears shot just 30.1 percent from the field.

The quarterfinal game: After UCLA lost to USC in its final-regular season game, ending the Bruins’ seven-game winning streak, UCLA’s Chris Smith offered this threat to the Bruins’ next foe by way of the Los Angeles Times: “I said, ‘I don’t know who we’re playing yet, but I feel bad for them because they’re gonna get pummeled,’ I don’t know what else to say, but we’re taking this all out on them.”

Well, the Bears were the next opponent, but they did not get pummeled. Riding high after their impressive first-round win over Stanford, Cal stays close throughout the first half. The Bears can’t do much offensively against the Bruins’ physical, disruptive defense, but the Bruins are having trouble scoring against Cal’s sticky defense.

Cal trails by two points at halftime, but Matt Bradley breaks away for a pair of three-point baskets early in the second half, and a steal and resulting layup by Paris Austin puts Cal ahead by three points. The Bears milk that lead into the closing minutes and still lead by a bucket at the four-minute mark.

Perhaps pressing a bit because they know a loss to Cal might prevent them from getting into the NCAA tournament, the Bruins commit turnovers on three consecutive possessions. But Cal fails to get good shots on its next three trips and can’t lengthen its lead.

Freshman point guard Tyger Campbell barrels down the lane and hits a contested 8-foot shot to tie the game with 30 seconds left, but he is then called for a foul on Paris Austin with five seconds remaining. Mick Cronin (photo above) is livid on the sidelines about the call, and comes close to receiving a technical foul.

Austin makes the first free throw, but misses the second. UCLA can only get off a 35-foot effort from Chris Smith at the buzzer, and it bounces off the backboard and the rim as the game ends.

UCLA finished second in the Pac-12 standings, but may well be left out of the NCAA tournament.

Final score: Cal 58, UCLA 57. (Cal 15-18, UCLA 19-13)

Day 3 Semifinals

Oregon vs. USC

Photo by Soobum Im - USA TODAY Sports

Regular-season results: Oregon won the teams’ only regular-season meeting 79-70 in Eugene, but Ducks guard Chris Duarte played in that game and scored 30 points. He is not available for the Pac-12 tournament because of a broken finger.

The semifinal game: Okongwu, who had 23 points and 14 rebounds in the earlier game against Oregon, has 14 first-half points in this game. The Trojans outrebound the Ducks 22-14 in the first half and hold a six-point lead at the break.

The Trojans run into turnover problems in the second half when Oregon turns to its fullcourt press. A steal and layup by Pritchard ties the game at 48-48 with eight minutes left.

Neither team can break away as Mathews and Pritchard duel from long range, trading three-pointers. The Trojans lead by a bucket with three minutes remaining when Pritchard hits a three-pointer from well beyond the arc. And after Okongwu fails to score from in close (with Andy Enfield screaming for a foul), Pritchard scores on a driving layup to increase the margin to three points with less than two minutes to go.

The Ducks keep the lead from the foul line. Pritchard finishes with 22 points and Mathis (No. 32 above) adds 16, while Okongwu collects 24 points and 11 boards for the Trojans.

Final score: Oregon 81, USC 75. (Oregon 26-7, USC 23-10)

Arizona State vs. Cal

Photo by Darren Yamashita - USA TODAY Sports

Regular-season results: Cal played Arizona State only once, and the Bears could not handle Remy Martin, who shot 7-of-10 from the field and scored 11 of his 22 points in the final 11 minutes of the Sun Devils’ 80-75 victory in Berkeley.

The semifinal game: The question heading into the game is whether Cal’s run of outstanding play can continue for a third straight game. The answer is a resounding no.

Matt Bradley (photo above) does his part by hitting four three-point shots and scoring 20 points. But ASU’s perimeter pair of Martin and Verge, each of whom scored 22 points in the teams’ earlier meeting, combine for 46 points this time.

ASU holds an eight-point lead at halftime, and stretches the margin throughout the half as Cal struggles to score. The Bears make a brief run late in the second half, closing the gap to five points with seven minutes to go. However, Martin and Verge score on consecutive possessions to end the Bears’ threat.

Final score: Arizona State 75, Cal 62. (Arizona State 22-11, Cal 15-19)

Day 4 Championship game

Oregon vs. Arizona State

Photo by Joe Camporeale - USA TODAY Sports

Regular-season results: Each team won on its home court during the regular season. Oregon won 78-69 in Eugene when Pritchard (No. 3 in photo above) had 29 points, and Arizona State won in Tempe 77-72 when ASU’s Verge had 26 points and Rob Edwards added 24 points. The chief difference is that Duarte played in the first matchup and scored 20 points but did not play in the later encounter. He is not available for the Pac-12 championship game either.

The championship game: TV cameras spend much of the game focusing on ASU coach Bobby Hurley, whose comic facial expressions and sideline antics are a show in themselves.

Martin has taken the challenge of guarding Pritchard, as the Pac-12’s top two scorers go head to head. Martin only scores 12 points in this game, but he limits Pritchard to 16.

ASU’s Verge and Oregon’s Mathis turn out to be the offensive stars, scoring 18 points apiece, and Mathis’ three-point shot with five minutes left puts the Ducks ahead by six points. But Pritchard is called for his fifth foul on Arizona State’s ensuing possession, and Oregon flounders without Pritchard on the court, much like they did when Pritchard fouled out against ASU in Tempe.

Edwards is left wide open for a transition three-pointer that he buries with a minute left to tie the score. After Richardson misses a contested three-pointer with 34 seconds to go, Verge dribbles out most of the remaining time before launching a tough 18-footer that drops through with five seconds left. After the Ducks’ desperation shot fails to come close, Hurley looks like the happiest guy in America as he celebrates with his players at midcourt.

Final score: Arizona State 72, Oregon 70. (Oregon 26-8, Arizona State 23-11)

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