San Diego State Loses, but Pac-12 Wins

The Aztecs' NCAA tournament showing gives the Pac-12 every reason to add them to the conference

San Diego State did not win the national championship, but by getting to the title game of the NCAA tournament, the Aztecs made it a whole lot easier for the Pac-12 to add San Diego State.

Although basketball is not nearly the financial-driver that football is, the prestige and exposure San Diego State achieved the past few weeks would deliver the same prestige and exposure to the Pac-12 if the Aztecs became a member. And that should not be ignored, because image is a major factor for conferences when it comes to any number of issues, including media rights deals.

As we all know, the Pac-12’s image in basketball is not good.  No Pac-12 school has reached the NCAA title game since UCLA lost to Florida in the 2006 championship game, and a Pac-12/Pac-10 team has played in the finals only four times in the past 42 seasons (excluding 2020, when the tournament was canceled). That’s not a basketball tradition that engenders pride.

San Diego State steps into that void. Let's not forget that San Diego State beat Alabama, the No. 1 overall seed, on its way to the title game. And this season’s Aztecs squad was not even their best team in the past four years. In 2019-20, they went 30-2, finished the regular season ranked No. 6 and would have been seeded second or third in the NCAA tournament that was canceled.

Ever since USC and UCLA announced in June that they were departing for the Big Ten in the summer of 2024, San Diego State has been considered the leading candidate as a school the Pac-12 would add to replace the departing Los Angeles schools.

There also was talk that perhaps the Pac-12 should add Gonzaga as a basketball-only member, but San Diego State would fill that role in basketball while also providing a solid football program. The Aztecs have been to bowl games each of the past 12 seasons, excluding the 2020 pandemic season, and they have won 10 games or more in five of the past seven seasons, excluding 2020.

You would have to assume San Diego State now is just too appealing for the Pac-12 to pass up. It is also assumed San Diego State would only be too willing to accept. In fact, the Pac-12 would get a lot of criticism if it does not invite the Aztecs to join.

The Pac-12 could add just one school to give it 11 teams for football and men’s and women’s basketball, since the Pac-12 no longer has two divisions in football. However, for scheduling balance and other issues, the Pac-12 would probably like to add two schools – possibly SMU – if it expands.

San Diego State is partciularly important since it would give the Pac-12 a foothold in southern California, filling part of the void left by the departure of USC and UCLA. Cal and Stanford would benefit from have a southern California partner, especially with USC and UCLA gone.

And San Diego State coach Brian Dutcher made an interesting observation a week ago, saying he wouldn’t want his team to make the exhausting travel USC and UCLA will have to make to face faraway Big Ten teams. He didn’t say as much, but it sounds like a recruiting tool San Diego State – and the Pac-12 in general – could use to recruit the talent-laden Los Angeles market when USC and UCLA leave the conference.

The Pac-12 would not earn any of the NCAA money earned from San Diego State’s deep run in the NCAA tournament. Each school earns monetary units for its conference over a six-year period based on its performance in the NCAA tournament. Even if San Diego State joins the Pac-12 in 2024, the Mountain West would reap all the NCAA payoffs for the Aztecs’ 2023 run to the finals. Similarly, the Pac-12 will earn the units UCLA achieved in 2021 for its run to the Final Four even after the Bruins leave for the Big Ten.

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury – and the Bay Area expert on the Pac-12 – explains it this way:

Based on the NCAA’s revenue distribution model, those units will carry a value of more than $11 million over the six-year payout cycle. Also, they would remain with the Mountain West in the event the Aztecs switch leagues.

(Each unit represents a game played, with the championship excluded from the formula.)

Over that same timespan, only one Pac-12 school has collected more than SDSU’s eight units: UCLA has 13, and they will remain with the conference once the Bruins depart for the Big Ten.

In fact, SDSU has more NCAA units over the past five tournaments than Cal, Stanford, Utah, Washington State, Washington and Colorado combined.

Whether Pac-12 media-rights negotiations would be aided by an understanding that San Diego State will be joining the conference is an open question. But there seems to be no question now that the Pac-12 should bring the Aztecs aboard, if for no other reason than to prevent them from joining another conference.

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Cover photo by Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports

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